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Route on-time record

MSP to EWR: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Newark (Newark Liberty International Airport). 2,182 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 4.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was United 2645 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → EWR

Minneapolis to Newark: 2,182 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

77%

Cancelled

4.2%

avg delay 20 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

88% on time vs 69% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

77% chance on time

Check MSP to EWR fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $232 (SY 233 on 2026-10-29). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · United 2645

    6:00 AM → 9:40 AM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 69%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find United 2645 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 2864

    7:07 AM → 10:29 AM2h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    2.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (338 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 69%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 338 flights

    Find Delta 2864 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Republic 3584 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    12:15 PM → 4:09 PM2h 54m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Republic 3504; its record covers all of them.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    3.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (101 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.8% of the time (4 of 105).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 101 flights

    Find 12:15 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Republic 3558 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    7:05 AM → 11:00 AM2h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    2.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (74 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 69%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 74 flights

    Find 7:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Republic 3681 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    4:58 PM → 8:53 PM2h 54m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    84%
    Cancelled
    6.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 84% of the time (140 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.0% of the time (9 of 149).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 140 flights

    Find 4:58 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Delta 1037

    9:13 AM → 12:59 PM2h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    90%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 90% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find Delta 1037 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · United 1637

    10:14 AM → 2:00 PM2h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 97% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find United 1637 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Delta 2885

    1:10 PM → 4:55 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Delta 2866; its record covers all of them.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    4.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (161 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.1% of the time (7 of 169).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 161 flights

    Find Delta 2885 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · United 657

    7:42 PM → 11:26 PM2h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    70%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    9.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 69% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 10 flights

    Find United 657 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Delta 2846

    7:50 PM → 11:34 PM2h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    69%
    Cancelled
    4.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 69% of the time (335 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.8% of the time (17 of 353).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 69% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 335 flights

    Find Delta 2846 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)77%

    521 flights · 85% on time as flown · 5.6% cancel

  • United Airlines73%

    398 flights · 73% on time as flown · 3.0% cancel

  • Delta Air Lines72%

    1,254 flights · 74% on time as flown · 4.1% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM88%

    643 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • 9 AM to noon78%

    322 flights · avg delay 18 min

  • Noon to 3 PM71%

    515 flights · avg delay 21 min

  • 3 to 6 PM69%

    187 flights · avg delay 33 min

  • 6 to 9 PM69%

    515 flights · avg delay 31 min

Best day: Tuesday (81%). Worst: Thursday (74%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • MSP → JFK 79% chance on time

    Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to John F. Kennedy International Airport · 774 flights a year · 21 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

  • MSP → LGA 77% chance on time

    Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to LaGuardia Airport · 1,925 flights a year · 17 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
84
F
85
M
82
A
81
M
76
J
73
J
66
A
75
S
79
O
82
N
76
D
71

What delays this route

  • Air traffic control and airport volume49%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)32%
  • Late-arriving aircraft13%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to EWR questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to EWR?
Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 69% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to EWR?
Republic, with a season-adjusted 77% chance of operating and arriving on time over 521 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to EWR?
July (66% on time); the best was February (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops