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Route on-time record

MSP to SEA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Seattle (Seattle–Tacoma International Airport). 2,707 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 81% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 868 at 8:57 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → SEA

Minneapolis to Seattle: 2,707 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

81%

Cancelled

1.1%

avg delay 12 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

88% on time vs 72% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

81% chance on time

Check MSP to SEA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $410 (Alaska 555 on 2026-10-24). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 868

    8:57 AM → 10:55 AM3h 53m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    0.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (362 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 72%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 362 flights

    Find Delta 868 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 889

    10:25 AM → 12:19 PM3h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (343 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 343 flights

    Find Delta 889 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Alaska 497

    6:29 AM → 8:43 AM4h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-17.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    5.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.9% of the time (2 of 34).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 72%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Alaska 497 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Alaska 387

    7:00 AM → 9:08 AM4h 01m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (348 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 72%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 348 flights

    Find Alaska 387 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Delta 505

    10:04 PM → 11:44 PM3h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (194 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 194 flights

    Find Delta 505 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Alaska 555

    5:12 PM → 7:10 PM3h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Alaska 612, 509; its record covers all of them.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (323 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside SEA's trouble window: 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started between 4 PM and 10 PM.

    Strong track record · 323 flights

    Find Alaska 555 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Delta 877

    2:04 PM → 3:50 PM3h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (358 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 358 flights

    Find Delta 877 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Delta 881

    6:51 PM → 8:50 PM3h 51m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    74%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    1.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (340 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 72% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside SEA's trouble window: 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started between 4 PM and 10 PM.

    Strong track record · 340 flights

    Find Delta 881 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines81%

    1,736 flights · 82% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

  • Alaska Airlines78%

    971 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM88%

    716 flights · avg delay 8 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    458 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • Noon to 3 PM75%

    487 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 3 to 6 PM81%

    365 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 6 to 9 PM72%

    467 flights · avg delay 17 min

  • After 9 PM82%

    214 flights · avg delay 10 min

Best day: Saturday (87%). Worst: Thursday (81%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
82
F
87
M
79
A
93
M
86
J
79
J
79
A
82
S
91
O
91
N
88
D
77

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)41%
  • Late-arriving aircraft28%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume27%
  • Severe weather5%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to SEA questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to SEA?
Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 72% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to SEA?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,736 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SEA?
December (77% on time); the best was April (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops