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Route on-time record

MSP to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 2,598 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 79% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 1498 at 8:20 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → MDW

Minneapolis to Chicago: 2,598 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

79%

Cancelled

1.4%

avg delay 13 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 71% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

79% chance on time

Check MSP to MDW fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 1498

    8:20 AM → 9:50 AM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    2 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 71%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 1498 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 3465

    5:20 AM → 6:50 AM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2860; its record covers all of them.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    2.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (85 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 71%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 85 flights

    Find Southwest 3465 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 3457

    10:30 AM → 12:00 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 3457 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 3466

    10:20 AM → 11:50 AM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3466 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 3779

    6:50 AM → 8:30 AM1h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    13.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 71%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 13 flights

    Find Southwest 3779 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · SkyWest 3795 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    7:00 AM → 8:46 AM1h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3778; its record covers all of them.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    1.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (325 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 71%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Strong track record · 325 flights

    Find 7:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Southwest 1290

    2:45 PM → 4:15 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    70%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    18 min
    • Arrived on time 70% of the time (27 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 80% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (27 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 27 flights

    Find Southwest 1290 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · SkyWest 3792 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    11:49 AM → 1:25 PM1h 36m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    1.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (104 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 104 flights

    Find 11:49 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Southwest 3467

    2:25 PM → 3:50 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    74%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 70% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3467 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Southwest 3468

    4:25 PM → 6:00 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3904; its record covers all of them.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    72%
    Cancelled
    2.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 72% of the time (76 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 71% on time; Before 9 AM: 87%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 63% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 76 flights

    Find Southwest 3468 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines79%

    1,620 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)76%

    978 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM87%

    773 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • 9 AM to noon81%

    702 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • Noon to 3 PM77%

    252 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 3 to 6 PM71%

    689 flights · avg delay 21 min

  • 6 to 9 PM73%

    182 flights · avg delay 15 min

Best day: Saturday (86%). Worst: Friday (79%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
79
F
85
M
81
A
87
M
83
J
77
J
72
A
80
S
87
O
89
N
88
D
77

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)44%
  • Late-arriving aircraft27%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume16%
  • Severe weather12%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to MDW?
Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 71% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to MDW?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,620 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to MDW?
July (72% on time); the best was October (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops