Route on-time record

MSP to DEN: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Denver (Denver International Airport). 5,835 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 5335 at 11:15 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → DEN

Minneapolis to Denver: 5,835 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

78%

Cancelled

0.8%

avg delay 17 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 60% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

SkyWest

86% chance on time

Check MSP to DEN fares

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Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · SkyWest 5335 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
11:15 AM → 12:41 PM2h 26m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.
95%
chance on time
On time (history)
100%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
0 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 30 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (30 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 30 flights
Find 11:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · SkyWest 4742 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
5:30 AM → 6:59 AM2h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-27.
93%
chance on time
On time (history)
94%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (17 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (17 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 17 flights
Find 5:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · United 2232
11:43 AM → 12:58 PM2h 15m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
92%
chance on time
On time (history)
100%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
1 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 30 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (30 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 30 flights
Find United 2232 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · United 2041
5:45 AM → 6:53 AM2h 08m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
91%
chance on time
On time (history)
92%
Cancelled
1.6%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (63 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 63 flights
Find United 2041 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Delta 1675
6:55 AM → 8:01 AM2h 06m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
90%
chance on time
On time (history)
96%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 96% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Delta 1675 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 4285
6:55 AM → 8:05 AM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
On time (history)
94%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
5 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 32 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 4285 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Southwest 280
6:30 AM → 7:35 AM2h 05m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
On time (history)
93%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
3 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 280 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Southwest 3819
6:20 AM → 7:45 AM2h 25m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
88%
chance on time
On time (history)
91%
Cancelled
3.0%
Avg arrival delay
9 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 3819 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · United 1305
1:36 PM → 2:55 PM2h 18m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as United 1220; its record covers all of them.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
90%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (88 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 88 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside DEN's trouble window: 79% of its 174 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Moderate track record · 88 flights
Find United 1305 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Frontier 1149
6:45 AM → 8:07 AM2h 21m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
85%
chance on time
On time (history)
85%
Cancelled
0.9%
Avg arrival delay
12 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (336 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 60%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 336 flights
Find Frontier 1149 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)86%
245 flights · 91% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel
Frontier Airlines81%
608 flights · 82% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel
United Airlines78%
1,436 flights · 78% on time as flown · 0.8% cancel
Southwest Airlines76%
1,742 flights · 76% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel
Delta Air Lines75%
1,804 flights · 75% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM87%
1,507 flights · avg delay 8 min
9 AM to noon84%
1,221 flights · avg delay 11 min
Noon to 3 PM82%
1,267 flights · avg delay 12 min
3 to 6 PM61%
688 flights · avg delay 36 min
6 to 9 PM60%
843 flights · avg delay 29 min
After 9 PM71%
309 flights · avg delay 22 min

Best day: Saturday (82%). Worst: Thursday (78%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Air traffic control and airport volume38%
Late-arriving aircraft30%
Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)30%
Severe weather3%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to DEN questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to DEN?: Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 60% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to DEN?: SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 86% chance of operating and arriving on time over 245 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to DEN?: July (69% on time); the best was November (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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