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Route on-time record

MSP to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 2,545 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 3.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4660 at 6:40 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → DCA

Minneapolis to Washington: 2,545 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

74%

Cancelled

3.1%

avg delay 20 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

84% on time vs 62% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

73% chance on time

Check MSP to DCA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $370 (American 5090 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Republic 4660 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    6:40 AM → 10:18 AM2h 38m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-19.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    3.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.1% of the time (1 of 32).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 84% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 31 flights

    Find 6:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 2958

    7:35 AM → 11:04 AM2h 29m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    2.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (343 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 84% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 343 flights

    Find Delta 2958 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 2983

    10:10 AM → 1:32 PM2h 25m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    84%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 84% of the time (344 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Strong track record · 344 flights

    Find Delta 2983 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · PSA 5509 · sold as American Eagle

    12:14 PM → 4:00 PM2h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    3.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.1% of the time (1 of 32).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 31 flights

    Find 12:14 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Republic 4732 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    7:03 AM → 10:39 AM2h 36m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    8.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (41 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 8.7% of the time (4 of 46).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 84% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 41 flights

    Find 7:03 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Delta 2963

    2:33 PM → 6:26 PM2h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    1.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    23 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (350 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Strong track record · 350 flights

    Find Delta 2963 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · PSA 5311 · sold as American Eagle

    11:19 AM → 2:59 PM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    27 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 69% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 9 flights

    Find 11:19 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · PSA 5441 · sold as American Eagle

    11:41 AM → 3:18 PM2h 37m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    71%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    4.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    49 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.3% of the time (2 of 46).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find 11:41 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · PSA 5312 · sold as American Eagle

    5:45 AM → 9:29 AM2h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    71%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (7 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 84% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (7 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 7 flights

    Find 5:45 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Delta 2961

    8:09 PM → 11:28 PM2h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    68%
    Cancelled
    3.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    18 min
    • Arrived on time 68% of the time (347 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.3% of the time (12 of 361).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 347 flights

    Find Delta 2961 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines73%

    1,690 flights · 75% on time as flown · 2.0% cancel

  • PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)71%

    442 flights · 74% on time as flown · 4.8% cancel

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)70%

    232 flights · 75% on time as flown · 4.9% cancel

  • Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)66%

    140 flights · 67% on time as flown · 3.7% cancel

  • American Airlines64%

    41 flights · 62% on time as flown · 3.5% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM84%

    570 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • 9 AM to noon84%

    454 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • Noon to 3 PM74%

    578 flights · avg delay 29 min

  • 3 to 6 PM62%

    315 flights · avg delay 30 min

  • 6 to 9 PM63%

    628 flights · avg delay 23 min

Best day: Saturday (84%). Worst: Thursday (74%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • MSP → IAD 80% chance on time

    Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to Washington Dulles International Airport · 892 flights a year · 23 mi from your airports · yours: 72%

    Rank flightsFares

  • MSP → BWI 79% chance on time

    Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 1,402 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 72%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
77
F
72
M
74
A
82
M
80
J
74
J
70
A
76
S
86
O
86
N
84
D
74

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)34%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume34%
  • Late-arriving aircraft26%
  • Severe weather7%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to DCA questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to DCA?
Before 9 AM: 84% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to DCA?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 73% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,690 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to DCA?
July (70% on time); the best was October (86%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops