Route on-time record
MSP to JFK: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to New York (John F. Kennedy International Airport). 774 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 81% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2969 at 7:10 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → JFK
Minneapolis to New York: 774 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
81%
Cancelled
1.3%
avg delay 17 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
88% on time vs 72% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
80% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2969
7:10 AM → 11:00 AM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 0.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (198 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 72%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 198 flights
Find Delta 2969 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2661
12:59 PM → 4:59 PM3h 04m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 82%
- Cancelled
- 2.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 19 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (255 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Strong track record · 255 flights
Find Delta 2661 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2692
7:59 PM → 11:55 PM2h 56m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
72%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 72%
- Cancelled
- 0.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 72% of the time (239 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 72% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 239 flights
Find Delta 2692 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines80%
774 flights · 81% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM88%
266 flights · avg delay 10 min
- Noon to 3 PM81%
263 flights · avg delay 19 min
- 6 to 9 PM72%
243 flights · avg delay 22 min
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)50%
- Air traffic control and airport volume41%
- Late-arriving aircraft7%
- Severe weather2%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to JFK questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to JFK?
- Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 72% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to JFK?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 774 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to JFK?
- July (74% on time); the best was November (90%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- JFK to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops