Route on-time record
MSP to DFW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas Fort Worth International Airport). 3,248 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 76% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2972 at 6:55 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → DFW
Minneapolis to Dallas-Fort Worth: 3,248 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
76%
Cancelled
2.3%
avg delay 20 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
85% on time vs 64% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
76% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2972
6:55 AM → 9:39 AM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 1.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (341 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 341 flights
Find Delta 2972 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · American 1395
5:33 AM → 8:16 AM2h 43m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 3.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (302 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.5% of the time (11 of 316).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 302 flights
Find American 1395 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2970
11:55 AM → 2:36 PM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 82%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (327 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Strong track record · 327 flights
Find Delta 2970 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · American 2152
10:35 AM → 1:10 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find American 2152 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · American 2150
7:05 AM → 9:52 AM2h 47m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 2172; its record covers all of them.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 83%
- Cancelled
- 3.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 19 min
- Arrived on time 83% of the time (315 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.4% of the time (11 of 328).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 315 flights
Find American 2150 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · American 2385
10:44 AM → 1:24 PM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as American 2220; its record covers all of them.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 1.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 14 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (344 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 54% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Strong track record · 344 flights
Find American 2385 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Delta 1100
10:05 AM → 12:34 PM2h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 72%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 72% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Delta 1100 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Frontier 1455
11:47 AM → 2:33 PM2h 46m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 1.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 21 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (74 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Moderate track record · 74 flights
Find Frontier 1455 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Delta 2971
2:40 PM → 5:19 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
71%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 71%
- Cancelled
- 0.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 20 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (315 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Strong track record · 315 flights
Find Delta 2971 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Delta 2967
9:20 PM → 11:59 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
70%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 71%
- Cancelled
- 2.2%
- Avg arrival delay
- 19 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (353 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 353 flights
Find Delta 2967 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines76%
1,412 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel
- American Airlines74%
1,623 flights · 76% on time as flown · 3.2% cancel
- Frontier Airlines72%
210 flights · 74% on time as flown · 1.8% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM85%
960 flights · avg delay 17 min
- 9 AM to noon81%
815 flights · avg delay 13 min
- Noon to 3 PM71%
483 flights · avg delay 30 min
- 3 to 6 PM69%
373 flights · avg delay 23 min
- 6 to 9 PM64%
536 flights · avg delay 28 min
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)42%
- Late-arriving aircraft35%
- Air traffic control and airport volume19%
- Severe weather4%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to DFW questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to DFW?
- Before 9 AM: 85% of flights arrived on time, against 64% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to DFW?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 76% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,412 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to DFW?
- June (68% on time); the best was October (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- DFW to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
- MSP to PHL 79%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops