Route on-time record
MSP to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 6,331 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 70% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Envoy 4019 at 5:18 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → ORD
Minneapolis to Chicago: 6,331 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
70%
Cancelled
2.2%
avg delay 24 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
83% on time vs 54% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
72% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $114 (American 2211 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Envoy 4019 · sold as American Eagle
5:18 AM → 7:04 AM1h 46m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 95%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 5:18 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Envoy 4148 · sold as American Eagle
7:07 AM → 9:00 AM1h 53m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 98%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 98% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 7:07 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · United 307
6:00 AM → 7:37 AM1h 38m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
86%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 1.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (141 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 141 flights
Find United 307 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Envoy 3407 · sold as American Eagle
5:00 AM → 6:45 AM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 13.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (26 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 13.3% of the time (4 of 30).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 26 flights
Find 5:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · United 1929
10:00 AM → 11:35 AM1h 36m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (82 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 82 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 82 flights
Find United 1929 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Envoy 4141 · sold as American Eagle
11:29 AM → 1:14 PM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 93%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find 11:29 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · American 407
8:19 AM → 10:07 AM1h 48m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (42 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (42 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 42 flights
Find American 407 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Delta 1544
7:00 AM → 8:40 AM1h 38m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 14 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (337 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 337 flights
Find Delta 1544 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Republic 4803 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:25 AM → 8:20 AM1h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 10 flights
Find 6:25 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · United 758
8:00 AM → 9:41 AM1h 38m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 1.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (332 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 332 flights
Find United 758 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)72%
524 flights · 76% on time as flown · 5.2% cancel
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)71%
1,088 flights · 74% on time as flown · 2.8% cancel
- United Airlines69%
2,399 flights · 70% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel
- American Airlines69%
170 flights · 71% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)66%
668 flights · 68% on time as flown · 3.1% cancel
- Delta Air Lines66%
1,426 flights · 67% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)62%
43 flights · 55% on time as flown · 2.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM83%
1,883 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 9 AM to noon78%
1,433 flights · avg delay 18 min
- Noon to 3 PM68%
628 flights · avg delay 25 min
- 3 to 6 PM54%
1,315 flights · avg delay 37 min
- 6 to 9 PM58%
1,056 flights · avg delay 38 min
Best day: Saturday (79%). Worst: Friday (73%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MSP → MDW 78% chance on time
Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to Chicago Midway International Airport · 2,598 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 68%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Air traffic control and airport volume39%
- Late-arriving aircraft28%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)26%
- Severe weather7%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to ORD questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to ORD?
- Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 54% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to ORD?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 72% chance of operating and arriving on time over 524 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to ORD?
- July (66% on time); the best was February (83%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- ORD to MSP (return)
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
- MSP to PHL 79%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops