Route on-time record

MSP to PHX: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport). 3,141 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2164 at 5:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → PHX

Minneapolis to Phoenix: 3,141 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

0.9%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 71% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

88% chance on time

Check MSP to PHX fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $228 (SY 601 on 2026-10-30). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 2164
5:00 AM → 6:30 AM3h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05.
93%
chance on time
On time (history)
100%
Cancelled
10.0%
Avg arrival delay
1 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (9 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 9 flights
Find Southwest 2164 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Delta 2288
7:07 AM → 8:25 AM3h 18m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
88%
chance on time
On time (history)
89%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
6 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (304 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 305 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 304 flights
Find Delta 2288 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Frontier 4275
11:56 AM → 1:38 PM3h 42m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-31.
88%
chance on time
On time (history)
94%
Cancelled
1.9%
Avg arrival delay
3 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (52 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (52 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 52 flights
Find Frontier 4275 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 594
12:50 PM → 2:15 PM3h 25m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
87%
chance on time
On time (history)
75%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
11 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 594 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Delta 1047
6:57 AM → 8:32 AM3h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
90%
Cancelled
1.7%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (59 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (59 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 59 flights
Find Delta 1047 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · American 408
2:39 PM → 4:06 PM3h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as American 2306; its record covers all of them.
82%
chance on time
On time (history)
88%
Cancelled
0.8%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (124 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Moderate track record · 124 flights
Find American 408 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · American 3143
7:00 AM → 8:29 AM3h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
81%
chance on time
On time (history)
84%
Cancelled
1.2%
Avg arrival delay
25 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (165 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 165 flights
Find American 3143 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · American 1320
7:12 AM → 8:59 AM3h 47m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
79%
Cancelled
3.9%
Avg arrival delay
27 min
- Arrived on time 79% of the time (149 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.9% of the time (6 of 155).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 149 flights
Find American 1320 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Delta 2284
2:57 PM → 4:24 PM3h 26m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
81%
Cancelled
2.0%
Avg arrival delay
10 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (144 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Moderate track record · 144 flights
Find Delta 2284 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Delta 2274
11:24 AM → 12:55 PM3h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
80%
Cancelled
0.7%
Avg arrival delay
14 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (271 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 271 flights
Find Delta 2274 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Southwest Airlines88%
310 flights · 90% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel
Frontier Airlines81%
74 flights · 85% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel
Delta Air Lines78%
2,101 flights · 78% on time as flown · 0.7% cancel
American Airlines77%
654 flights · 79% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM87%
831 flights · avg delay 13 min
9 AM to noon81%
811 flights · avg delay 12 min
Noon to 3 PM77%
687 flights · avg delay 15 min
3 to 6 PM80%
131 flights · avg delay 12 min
6 to 9 PM71%
428 flights · avg delay 25 min
After 9 PM73%
253 flights · avg delay 25 min

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)57%
Late-arriving aircraft24%
Air traffic control and airport volume17%
Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to PHX questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to PHX?: Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 71% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to PHX?: Southwest, with a season-adjusted 88% chance of operating and arriving on time over 310 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to PHX?: December (78% on time); the best was September (90%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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