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Route on-time record

EWR to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Newark (Newark Liberty International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 2,182 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 4.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 1641 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

EWR → MSP

Newark to Minneapolis: 2,182 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

78%

Cancelled

4.1%

avg delay 23 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 62% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

78% chance on time

Check EWR to MSP fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $169 (SY 234 on 2026-10-22). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 1641

    6:00 AM → 8:10 AM3h 03m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    4.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (349 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.4% of the time (16 of 365).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside EWR's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 349 flights

    Find Delta 1641 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Republic 3578 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    9:10 AM → 11:29 AM3h 16m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    6.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (181 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.2% of the time (12 of 193).
    • Departs outside EWR's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 181 flights

    Find 9:10 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Republic 3424 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    2:10 PM → 4:19 PM3h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    95%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 95% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 21 flights

    Find 2:10 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Republic 3575 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    1:59 PM → 4:13 PM3h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    5.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (96 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.9% of the time (6 of 102).
    • Departs inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 96 flights

    Find 1:59 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Delta 2864

    11:30 AM → 1:50 PM3h 04m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    3.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (336 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.4% of the time (12 of 348).
    • Departs outside EWR's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 336 flights

    Find Delta 2864 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · United 1068

    1:55 PM → 3:55 PM3h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find United 1068 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Republic 3672 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    3:00 PM → 5:17 PM3h 17m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-27.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    10.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (18 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (18 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 18 flights

    Find 3:00 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · United 1795

    7:18 AM → 9:18 AM3h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    21 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside EWR's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 92% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find United 1795 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Republic 3680 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    9:40 PM → 11:59 PM3h 19m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-19.

    74%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    5.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (87 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.4% of the time (5 of 93).
    • Departs outside EWR's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 87 flights

    Find 9:40 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Delta 2895

    3:00 PM → 4:58 PM2h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    3.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    37 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (184 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.2% of the time (6 of 190).
    • Departs inside EWR's trouble window: 65% of its 259 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 184 flights

    Find Delta 2895 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)78%

    521 flights · 85% on time as flown · 5.5% cancel

  • Delta Air Lines74%

    1,254 flights · 77% on time as flown · 4.1% cancel

  • United Airlines74%

    398 flights · 73% on time as flown · 2.2% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    481 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • 9 AM to noon84%

    372 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • Noon to 3 PM78%

    590 flights · avg delay 24 min

  • 3 to 6 PM74%

    183 flights · avg delay 22 min

  • 6 to 9 PM62%

    358 flights · avg delay 40 min

  • After 9 PM76%

    198 flights · avg delay 29 min

Best day: Wednesday (81%). Worst: Thursday (76%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • LGA → MSP 80% chance on time

    LaGuardia Airport to Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field · 1,927 flights a year · 17 mi from your airports · yours: 75%

    Rank flightsFares

  • JFK → MSP 79% chance on time

    John F. Kennedy International Airport to Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field · 773 flights a year · 21 mi from your airports · yours: 75%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
87
F
83
M
85
A
80
M
77
J
69
J
61
A
74
S
84
O
81
N
80
D
78

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft39%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)38%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume18%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

EWR to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly EWR to MSP?
Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from EWR to MSP?
Republic, with a season-adjusted 78% chance of operating and arriving on time over 521 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on EWR to MSP?
July (61% on time); the best was January (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from EWR

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops