Route on-time record
MSP to SNA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Santa Ana (John Wayne Orange County International Airport). 585 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 69% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2081 at 10:33 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → SNA
Minneapolis to Santa Ana: 585 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
69%
Cancelled
1.2%
avg delay 21 min
Best time to leave
9 AM to noon
74% on time vs 66% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
68% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $627 (United 1704 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2081
10:33 AM → 12:47 PM4h 04m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
73%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 74%
- Cancelled
- 0.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 74% of the time (216 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 74% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 66%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 216 flights
Find Delta 2081 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2107
6:52 PM → 8:56 PM4h 03m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
65%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 66%
- Cancelled
- 1.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 24 min
- Arrived on time 66% of the time (353 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 66% on time; 9 AM to noon: 74%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 353 flights
Find Delta 2107 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines68%
585 flights · 69% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- 9 AM to noon74%
222 flights · avg delay 16 min
- 6 to 9 PM66%
363 flights · avg delay 24 min
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MSP → LAX 82% chance on time
Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field to Los Angeles International Airport · 2,176 flights a year · 36 mi from your airports · yours: 68%
Or connect through a calmer hub
via PDX (Portland International Airport)
72% both legs on time- MSP to PDX on time 82%, PDX to SNA on time 90%.
- PDX rarely gets ground stops (1 in 12 months).
Book connections on one ticket and allow at least an hour at the hub. Leg odds are combined as independent, a rough guide.
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)63%
- Air traffic control and airport volume19%
- Late-arriving aircraft16%
- Severe weather2%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to SNA questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to SNA?
- 9 AM to noon: 74% of flights arrived on time, against 66% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to SNA?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 68% chance of operating and arriving on time over 585 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SNA?
- July (65% on time); the best was September (80%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- SNA to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
Most on-time flights from MSP on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops