Route on-time record
MSP to SFO: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to San Francisco (San Francisco International Airport). 1,917 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.7% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 756 at 6:45 PM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → SFO
Minneapolis to San Francisco: 1,917 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
74%
Cancelled
0.7%
avg delay 16 min
Best time to leave
3 to 6 PM
78% on time vs 69% after 9 PM
Most reliable airline
United
74% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $161 (SY 393 on 2026-10-28). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 756
6:45 PM → 8:59 PM4h 07m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (342 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 342 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 342 flights
Find Delta 756 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · SkyWest 5376 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
7:00 AM → 9:18 AM4h 18m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 56%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 35 min
- Arrived on time 56% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 9 flights
Find 7:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2074
11:12 AM → 1:27 PM4h 11m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 1.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 14 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (361 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 361 flights
Find Delta 2074 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · United 552
5:37 PM → 7:57 PM4h 20m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
73%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 69%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 26 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (98 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 98 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 78% on time; After 9 PM: 69%).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Moderate track record · 98 flights
Find United 552 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · United 1394
8:30 AM → 10:50 AM4h 20m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
70%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 39%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 54 min
- Arrived on time 39% of the time (18 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 18 flights
Find United 1394 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Delta 2078
9:08 AM → 11:25 AM4h 16m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
69%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 66%
- Cancelled
- 2.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 66% of the time (160 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 160 flights
Find Delta 2078 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Delta 2089
9:50 PM → 12:02 AM4h 08m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
67%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 65%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 21 min
- Arrived on time 65% of the time (169 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 69% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 78%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 169 flights
Find Delta 2089 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- United Airlines74%
294 flights · 73% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)74%
178 flights · 74% on time as flown · 0.6% cancel
- Delta Air Lines73%
1,445 flights · 74% on time as flown · 0.8% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM75%
309 flights · avg delay 15 min
- 9 AM to noon73%
558 flights · avg delay 15 min
- 3 to 6 PM78%
516 flights · avg delay 17 min
- 6 to 9 PM70%
325 flights · avg delay 20 min
- After 9 PM69%
208 flights · avg delay 19 min
Best day: Saturday (84%). Worst: Friday (74%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Air traffic control and airport volume49%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)30%
- Late-arriving aircraft19%
- Severe weather1%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to SFO questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to SFO?
- 3 to 6 PM: 78% of flights arrived on time, against 69% for departures after 9 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to SFO?
- United, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 294 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SFO?
- May (62% on time); the best was September (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- SFO to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
Most on-time flights from MSP on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops