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Route on-time record

SFO to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

San Francisco (San Francisco International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 1,917 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 86% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2178 at 6:20 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

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SFO → MSP

San Francisco to Minneapolis: 1,917 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

86%

Cancelled

0.8%

avg delay 10 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

93% on time vs 75% 9 AM to noon

Most reliable airline

Delta

85% chance on time

Check SFO to MSP fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $136 (SY 396 on 2026-11-05). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 2178

    6:20 AM → 11:58 AM3h 41m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    94%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (359 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 9 AM to noon: 75%).
    • Departs outside SFO's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 359 flights

    Find Delta 2178 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 1333

    12:15 AM → 5:53 AM3h 38m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (17 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SFO's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 17 flights

    Find Delta 1333 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · SkyWest 5234 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:33 AM → 2:37 PM4h 04m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    87%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 9 AM to noon: 75%).
    • Departs inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find 8:33 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Delta 2159

    3:59 PM → 9:40 PM3h 41m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (321 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SFO's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 58% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Strong track record · 321 flights

    Find Delta 2159 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · United 373

    4:25 PM → 10:17 PM3h 52m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (42 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 43 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside SFO's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 68% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 42 flights

    Find United 373 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · United 2272

    10:10 AM → 3:57 PM3h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (77 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 77 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (9 AM to noon: 75% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
    • Departs inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Moderate track record · 77 flights

    Find United 2272 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Delta 2078

    12:35 PM → 6:22 PM3h 47m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    2.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (159 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside SFO's trouble window: 60% of its 334 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 159 flights

    Find Delta 2078 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines85%

    1,444 flights · 86% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)84%

    180 flights · 85% on time as flown · 0.4% cancel

  • United Airlines83%

    293 flights · 82% on time as flown · 0.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM93%

    562 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 9 AM to noon75%

    170 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • Noon to 3 PM79%

    356 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 3 to 6 PM82%

    456 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 6 to 9 PM86%

    80 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • After 9 PM92%

    293 flights · avg delay 8 min

Best day: Tuesday (89%). Worst: Sunday (84%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • SJC → MSP 90% chance on time

    Norman Y. Mineta San Jose International Airport to Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field · 509 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 85%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
89
F
89
M
80
A
82
M
81
J
83
J
84
A
87
S
89
O
94
N
88
D
84

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft52%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)37%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume11%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from SFO to MSP…

SFO to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly SFO to MSP?
Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures 9 AM to noon. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from SFO to MSP?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 85% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,444 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on SFO to MSP?
March (80% on time); the best was October (94%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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Live status: FAA delays and ground stops