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Route on-time record

SEA to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Seattle (Seattle–Tacoma International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 2,707 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 85% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.0% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 943 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

SEA → MSP

Seattle to Minneapolis: 2,707 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

85%

Cancelled

1.0%

avg delay 9 min

Best time to leave

After 9 PM

92% on time vs 78% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

88% chance on time

Check SEA to MSP fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 943

    6:00 AM → 11:23 AM3h 24m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    94%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (360 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 360 flights

    Find Delta 943 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 953

    11:59 PM → 5:26 AM3h 18m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    91%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (257 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (After 9 PM: 92% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 78%).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 257 flights

    Find Delta 953 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 536

    8:25 AM → 1:47 PM3h 29m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (329 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 329 flights

    Find Delta 536 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Alaska 509

    12:31 PM → 5:58 PM3h 27m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (19 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (19 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 19 flights

    Find Alaska 509 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Delta 941

    11:50 AM → 5:15 PM3h 27m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (262 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 262 flights

    Find Delta 941 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Alaska 376

    8:40 AM → 2:04 PM3h 24m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-21.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (35 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 35 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 35 flights

    Find Alaska 376 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Alaska 555

    8:26 AM → 2:01 PM3h 32m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (312 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 312 flights

    Find Alaska 555 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Delta 949

    3:30 PM → 8:52 PM3h 25m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    1.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (317 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 317 flights

    Find Delta 949 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Alaska 386

    6:38 PM → 11:59 PM3h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    1.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (322 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 78% on time; After 9 PM: 92%).
    • Departs inside SEA's trouble window: 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started between 4 PM and 10 PM.
    • 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Strong track record · 322 flights

    Find Alaska 386 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines88%

    1,735 flights · 89% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

  • Alaska Airlines80%

    972 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM90%

    857 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    468 flights · avg delay 8 min

  • Noon to 3 PM80%

    464 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 3 to 6 PM85%

    176 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 6 to 9 PM78%

    470 flights · avg delay 14 min

  • After 9 PM92%

    272 flights · avg delay 3 min

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
91
F
90
M
90
A
91
M
86
J
80
J
76
A
79
S
86
O
91
N
90
D
87

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)48%
  • Late-arriving aircraft31%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume18%
  • Severe weather4%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

SEA to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly SEA to MSP?
After 9 PM: 92% of flights arrived on time, against 78% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
Which airline is most on time from SEA to MSP?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 88% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,735 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on SEA to MSP?
July (76% on time); the best was April (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from SEA

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops