Skip to content

All Products

Aviation Intelligence

Alerts & Airspace

Free Pilot Tools & Widgets

RC Aviation

Games & Learning

Weather Research & More

Pilot Resources

My Airports

Your shortcuts, saved on this device. Search to add an airport.

No airports saved yet. Add the fields you visit most.

Ask ATIS

Route on-time record

MSP to SDF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport). 651 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 82% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3978 at 8:55 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

Find me the most reliable flights fromtoonreturning(optional)

MSP → SDF

Minneapolis to Louisville: 651 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

82%

Cancelled

0.9%

avg delay 11 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

86% on time vs 78% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

SkyWest

81% chance on time

Check MSP to SDF fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3978 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:55 AM → 11:59 AM2h 02m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3923; its record covers all of them.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (241 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 86% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 78%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 241 flights

    Find 8:55 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · SkyWest 4040 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:00 PM → 11:09 PM2h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    2.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (109 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 109 flights

    Find 8:00 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · SkyWest 4007 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    12:50 PM → 3:48 PM1h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    68%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 68% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 12:50 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)81%

    651 flights · 82% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM86%

    92 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    90 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • Noon to 3 PM78%

    178 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 3 to 6 PM78%

    97 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 6 to 9 PM85%

    194 flights · avg delay 9 min

Best day: Saturday (92%). Worst: Monday (79%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
78
F
83
M
83
A
87
M
82
J
76
J
80
A
83
S
90
O
93
N
88
D
83

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)63%
  • Severe weather20%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume17%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to SDF…

MSP to SDF questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to SDF?
Before 9 AM: 86% of flights arrived on time, against 78% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to SDF?
SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 651 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SDF?
June (76% on time); the best was October (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Most on-time flights from MSP on every route →

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops