Route on-time record
SDF to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 651 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 82% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3938 at 6:15 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
SDF → MSP
Louisville to Minneapolis: 651 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
82%
Cancelled
1.1%
avg delay 18 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
91% on time vs 76% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
SkyWest
81% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · SkyWest 3938 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
6:15 AM → 7:37 AM2h 13m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 2.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (111 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 76%).
Moderate track record · 111 flights
Find 6:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · SkyWest 3978 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
12:42 PM → 1:49 PM2h 15m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (179 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Moderate track record · 179 flights
Find 12:42 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · SkyWest 3923 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
12:35 PM → 1:47 PM2h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (63 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 63 scheduled flights.
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Moderate track record · 63 flights
Find 12:35 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · SkyWest 4007 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
4:28 PM → 5:40 PM2h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 68%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 60 min
- Arrived on time 68% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 76% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find 4:28 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)81%
651 flights · 82% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM91%
194 flights · avg delay 10 min
- Noon to 3 PM81%
182 flights · avg delay 20 min
- 3 to 6 PM76%
178 flights · avg delay 26 min
- 6 to 9 PM78%
97 flights · avg delay 19 min
Best day: Saturday (88%). Worst: Monday (82%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)61%
- Severe weather25%
- Air traffic control and airport volume14%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
SDF to MSP questions
- What time of day is best to fly SDF to MSP?
- Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 76% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from SDF to MSP?
- SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 651 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on SDF to MSP?
- June (76% on time); the best was October (96%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from SDF
- MSP to SDF (return)
- SDF to ORD 79%
- SDF to ATL 89%
- SDF to DFW 74%
- SDF to CLT 82%
- SDF to DTW 82%
- SDF to DEN 83%
- SDF to LGA 83%
- SDF to DCA 79%
- SDF to MDW 85%
- SDF to EWR 86%
- SDF to BWI 86%
- SDF to MCO 81%
Most on-time flights from SDF on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops