Route on-time record
MSP to SAN: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to San Diego (San Diego International Airport). 1,325 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.6% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2121 at 9:06 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → SAN
Minneapolis to San Diego: 1,325 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
77%
Cancelled
0.6%
avg delay 13 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
83% on time vs 71% after 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
76% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $302 (SY 407 on 2026-10-29). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2121
9:06 AM → 11:08 AM3h 53m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 82%
- Cancelled
- 0.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (340 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside SAN's trouble window: 66% of its 166 ground stops and delay programs started between 6 AM and noon.
Strong track record · 340 flights
Find Delta 2121 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2125
11:36 AM → 1:37 PM3h 52m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (364 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 364 flights
Find Delta 2125 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2145
6:45 PM → 8:45 PM3h 54m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
71%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 71%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (352 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 352 flights
Find Delta 2145 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Delta 2146
9:40 PM → 11:40 PM3h 53m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
70%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 71%
- Cancelled
- 1.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (231 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 71% on time; Before 9 AM: 83%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 231 flights
Find Delta 2146 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines76%
1,325 flights · 77% on time as flown · 0.6% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM83%
145 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 9 AM to noon81%
585 flights · avg delay 9 min
- 6 to 9 PM72%
364 flights · avg delay 16 min
- After 9 PM71%
231 flights · avg delay 19 min
Best day: Wednesday (84%). Worst: Thursday (78%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)39%
- Air traffic control and airport volume32%
- Late-arriving aircraft25%
- Severe weather4%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to SAN questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to SAN?
- Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 71% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to SAN?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 76% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,325 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SAN?
- June (68% on time); the best was September (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- SAN to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
Most on-time flights from MSP on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops