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Route on-time record

MSP to RAP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Rapid City (Rapid City Regional Airport). 370 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 83% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3971 at 9:23 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → RAP

Minneapolis to Rapid City: 370 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

83%

Cancelled

0.8%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

85% on time vs 81% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

SkyWest

83% chance on time

Check MSP to RAP fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3971 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:23 AM → 10:20 AM1h 52m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    1.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (79 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 85% on time; After 9 PM: 81%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 79 flights

    Find 9:23 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · SkyWest 3811 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    1:00 PM → 1:44 PM1h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find 1:00 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · SkyWest 3851 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    2:25 PM → 3:15 PM1h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (56 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 56 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (56 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 56 flights

    Find 2:25 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 3714 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:37 PM → 10:20 PM1h 43m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    46 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (49 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 81% on time; 9 AM to noon: 85%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (49 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 49 flights

    Find 9:37 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)83%

    370 flights · 83% on time as flown · 0.8% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • 9 AM to noon85%

    111 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • Noon to 3 PM83%

    101 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 3 to 6 PM83%

    78 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • After 9 PM81%

    80 flights · avg delay 32 min

Best day: Saturday (90%). Worst: Friday (80%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
83
F
90
M
85
A
86
M
85
J
75
J
78
A
84
S
94
O
94
N
93
D
92

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)79%
  • Severe weather15%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to RAP questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to RAP?
9 AM to noon: 85% of flights arrived on time, against 81% for departures after 9 PM.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to RAP?
SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 83% chance of operating and arriving on time over 370 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to RAP?
June (75% on time); the best was October (94%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops