Route on-time record
PHX to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 3,142 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 83% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2553 at 6:05 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
PHX → MSP
Phoenix to Minneapolis: 3,142 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
83%
Cancelled
0.9%
avg delay 13 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
91% on time vs 75% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
85% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2553
6:05 AM → 11:09 AM3h 04m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
94%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 95%
- Cancelled
- 0.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (363 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 75%).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 363 flights
Find Delta 2553 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2208
11:54 AM → 4:58 PM3h 04m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
92%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 96%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 96% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Delta 2208 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Frontier 4276
6:00 AM → 11:01 AM3h 01m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-31.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 1.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (52 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 75%).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (52 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 52 flights
Find Frontier 4276 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Delta 1654
9:39 AM → 2:42 PM3h 03m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Delta 1047; its record covers all of them.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (153 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Moderate track record · 153 flights
Find Delta 1654 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Delta 1017
11:59 PM → 5:02 AM3h 03m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 8.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 8.3% of the time (3 of 36).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 33 flights
Find Delta 1017 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Delta 2285
5:09 PM → 10:15 PM3h 06m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Delta 2285 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Delta 2206
11:20 AM → 4:24 PM3h 04m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 11 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- 91% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Delta 2206 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · American 2146
8:35 AM → 1:56 PM3h 21m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 3236, 2306; its record covers all of them.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 1.2%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (84 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 75%).
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Moderate track record · 84 flights
Find American 2146 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Delta 2287
4:44 PM → 9:50 PM3h 06m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 81%
- Cancelled
- 0.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (282 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- 50% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Strong track record · 282 flights
Find Delta 2287 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Delta 2218
12:48 PM → 5:50 PM3h 02m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 81%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (36 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 36 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 36 flights
Find Delta 2218 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines85%
2,101 flights · 86% on time as flown · 0.7% cancel
- Frontier Airlines82%
74 flights · 82% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel
- American Airlines79%
655 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
- Southwest Airlines74%
310 flights · 73% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM91%
646 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 9 AM to noon89%
833 flights · avg delay 8 min
- Noon to 3 PM77%
416 flights · avg delay 20 min
- 3 to 6 PM78%
472 flights · avg delay 16 min
- 6 to 9 PM75%
555 flights · avg delay 18 min
- After 9 PM87%
220 flights · avg delay 11 min
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft50%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)41%
- Air traffic control and airport volume8%
- Severe weather2%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
PHX to MSP questions
- What time of day is best to fly PHX to MSP?
- Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from PHX to MSP?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 85% chance of operating and arriving on time over 2,101 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on PHX to MSP?
- June (78% on time); the best was September (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from PHX
- MSP to PHX (return)
- PHX to DEN 77%
- PHX to LAX 83%
- PHX to SEA 83%
- PHX to LAS 79%
- PHX to SAN 74%
- PHX to SLC 83%
- PHX to ORD 77%
- PHX to DFW 80%
- PHX to SFO 71%
- PHX to SNA 80%
- PHX to ATL 82%
- PHX to PDX 79%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops