Route on-time record
ORD to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 6,330 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 69% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.0% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was United 2232 at 7:05 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
ORD → MSP
Chicago to Minneapolis: 6,330 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
69%
Cancelled
2.0%
avg delay 26 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
83% on time vs 59% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Envoy
71% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $111 (American 2865 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · United 2232
7:05 AM → 8:46 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (254 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 254 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 254 flights
Find United 2232 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · SkyWest 3813 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
6:24 AM → 8:05 AM1h 41m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3849; its record covers all of them.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 94%
- Cancelled
- 4.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (47 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 4.1% of the time (2 of 49).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 47 flights
Find 6:24 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · United 1414
8:40 AM → 10:21 AM1h 41m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 95%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 21 flights
Find United 1414 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Envoy 4141 · sold as American Eagle
9:10 AM → 10:54 AM1h 44m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find 9:10 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · SkyWest 5405 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
10:30 AM → 12:17 PM1h 47m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 21 flights
Find 10:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · SkyWest 3905 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
6:15 AM → 7:57 AM1h 42m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 79%
- Cancelled
- 8.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 23 min
- Arrived on time 79% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 8.3% of the time (3 of 36).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 33 flights
Find 6:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Republic 4645 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
8:37 AM → 10:15 AM1h 38m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 3.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 21 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find 8:37 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Envoy 3881 · sold as American Eagle
8:37 AM → 10:10 AM1h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-04.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 1.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (58 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (58 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 58 flights
Find 8:37 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Republic 3610 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
10:37 AM → 12:21 PM1h 44m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find 10:37 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Delta 1574
8:50 AM → 10:30 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06. Same departure also flew as Delta 1613; its record covers all of them.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 3.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (53 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.6% of the time (2 of 55).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 53 flights
Find Delta 1574 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)71%
1,087 flights · 74% on time as flown · 2.7% cancel
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)69%
526 flights · 72% on time as flown · 4.6% cancel
- United Airlines69%
2,401 flights · 69% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel
- Delta Air Lines67%
1,426 flights · 69% on time as flown · 1.8% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)67%
43 flights · 68% on time as flown · 2.6% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)66%
665 flights · 66% on time as flown · 2.9% cancel
- American Airlines53%
169 flights · 51% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM83%
1,607 flights · avg delay 15 min
- 9 AM to noon75%
679 flights · avg delay 20 min
- Noon to 3 PM71%
974 flights · avg delay 23 min
- 3 to 6 PM61%
1,527 flights · avg delay 32 min
- 6 to 9 PM59%
1,079 flights · avg delay 34 min
- After 9 PM61%
464 flights · avg delay 35 min
Best day: Saturday (77%). Worst: Thursday (71%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MDW → MSP 76% chance on time
Chicago Midway International Airport to Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field · 2,595 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 68%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft39%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)31%
- Air traffic control and airport volume17%
- Severe weather12%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
ORD to MSP questions
- What time of day is best to fly ORD to MSP?
- Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 59% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from ORD to MSP?
- Envoy, with a season-adjusted 71% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,087 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on ORD to MSP?
- July (61% on time); the best was October (83%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from ORD
- MSP to ORD (return)
- ORD to LGA 67%
- ORD to BOS 68%
- ORD to LAX 74%
- ORD to DFW 70%
- ORD to DCA 69%
- ORD to MCO 73%
- ORD to ATL 74%
- ORD to DEN 74%
- ORD to IAH 75%
- ORD to EWR 69%
- ORD to DTW 71%
- ORD to PHX 74%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops