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Route on-time record

MSP to MKE: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Milwaukee (General Mitchell International Airport). 1,484 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.0% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3964 at 9:40 PM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → MKE

Minneapolis to Milwaukee: 1,484 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

1.0%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

After 9 PM

88% on time vs 73% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

79% chance on time

Check MSP to MKE fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $115 (SY 1815 on 2026-10-22). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3964 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:40 PM → 10:55 PM1h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (After 9 PM: 88% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 73%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 9:40 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 561

    10:05 AM → 11:20 AM1h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Delta 561 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · SkyWest 3695 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:50 AM → 10:13 AM1h 23m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    92%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 92% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find 8:50 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 3501 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    3:35 PM → 4:51 PM1h 16m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3932; its record covers all of them.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    94%
    Cancelled
    2.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 94% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 73% on time; After 9 PM: 88%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 33 flights

    Find 3:35 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · SkyWest 3926 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    7:10 AM → 8:31 AM1h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3762; its record covers all of them.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    84%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 84% of the time (50 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (50 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 50 flights

    Find 7:10 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · SkyWest 3963 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    7:50 PM → 9:16 PM1h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    5.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (34 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.6% of the time (2 of 36).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (34 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 34 flights

    Find 7:50 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · SkyWest 3696 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:30 PM → 10:46 PM1h 16m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-05.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    34 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (After 9 PM: 88% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 73%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find 9:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Delta 2832

    3:25 PM → 4:34 PM1h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-05.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (14 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 73% on time; After 9 PM: 88%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (14 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 14 flights

    Find Delta 2832 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Delta 2006

    1:55 PM → 3:09 PM1h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Delta 2979; its record covers all of them.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (162 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 162 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 162 flights

    Find Delta 2006 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · SkyWest 3962 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    4:55 PM → 6:16 PM1h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    2.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (35 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 73% on time; After 9 PM: 88%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (35 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 35 flights

    Find 4:55 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines79%

    704 flights · 80% on time as flown · 0.8% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)79%

    780 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM86%

    281 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    188 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • Noon to 3 PM78%

    319 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 3 to 6 PM73%

    286 flights · avg delay 22 min

  • 6 to 9 PM78%

    354 flights · avg delay 22 min

  • After 9 PM88%

    56 flights · avg delay 16 min

Best day: Tuesday (86%). Worst: Friday (81%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
85
M
82
A
85
M
86
J
77
J
76
A
81
S
91
O
89
N
91
D
80

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)59%
  • Severe weather18%
  • Late-arriving aircraft12%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume11%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to MKE…

MSP to MKE questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to MKE?
After 9 PM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 73% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to MKE?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 704 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to MKE?
July (76% on time); the best was November (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops