Route on-time record

MDW to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 2,595 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2126 at 8:05 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDW → MSP

Chicago to Minneapolis: 2,595 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

78%

Cancelled

1.5%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

88% on time vs 57% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

SkyWest

77% chance on time

Check MDW to MSP fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 2126
8:05 AM → 9:40 AM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
On time (history)
95%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
2 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; After 9 PM: 57%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 2126 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 544
7:40 AM → 9:10 AM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
87%
chance on time
On time (history)
97%
Cancelled
9.1%
Avg arrival delay
3 min
- Arrived on time 97% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 9.1% of the time (3 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; After 9 PM: 57%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 30 flights
Find Southwest 544 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · SkyWest 3792 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
2:05 PM → 3:44 PM1h 39m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
85%
chance on time
On time (history)
90%
Cancelled
1.7%
Avg arrival delay
10 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (59 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (59 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 59 flights
Find 2:05 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 2329
4:05 PM → 5:35 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
80%
chance on time
On time (history)
87%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 2329 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · SkyWest 3778 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
9:30 AM → 11:07 AM1h 37m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
80%
Cancelled
0.6%
Avg arrival delay
17 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (336 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Strong track record · 336 flights
Find 9:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 428
10:15 AM → 11:50 AM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3861; its record covers all of them.
78%
chance on time
On time (history)
78%
Cancelled
3.6%
Avg arrival delay
20 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.6% of the time (2 of 56).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find Southwest 428 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Southwest 1276
10:45 AM → 12:20 PM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
78%
chance on time
On time (history)
78%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
17 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 1276 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Southwest 2019
2:20 PM → 3:50 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
78%
chance on time
On time (history)
73%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
20 min
- Arrived on time 73% of the time (15 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (15 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 15 flights
Find Southwest 2019 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Southwest 467
1:30 PM → 3:00 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
77%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
12 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (47 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 47 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 47 flights
Find Southwest 467 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Southwest 3113
4:35 PM → 6:05 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
64%
Cancelled
4.3%
Avg arrival delay
28 min
- Arrived on time 64% of the time (22 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (22 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 22 flights
Find Southwest 3113 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)77%
978 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel
Southwest Airlines76%
1,617 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM88%
359 flights · avg delay 5 min
9 AM to noon81%
584 flights · avg delay 15 min
Noon to 3 PM80%
552 flights · avg delay 13 min
3 to 6 PM73%
376 flights · avg delay 20 min
6 to 9 PM74%
546 flights · avg delay 20 min
After 9 PM57%
178 flights · avg delay 30 min

Best day: Saturday (84%). Worst: Thursday (77%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)48%
Late-arriving aircraft26%
Severe weather14%
Air traffic control and airport volume12%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDW to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly MDW to MSP?: Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 57% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MDW to MSP?: SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 77% chance of operating and arriving on time over 978 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDW to MSP?: July (66% on time); the best was November (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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