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Route on-time record

MSP to FSD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Sioux Falls (Sioux Falls Regional Airport). 1,230 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3870 at 9:05 AM.

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MSP → FSD

Minneapolis to Sioux Falls: 1,230 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

78%

Cancelled

1.1%

avg delay 17 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

86% on time vs 67% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

SkyWest

77% chance on time

Check MSP to FSD fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3870 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:05 AM → 10:15 AM1h 10m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    95%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 95% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 67%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find 9:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · SkyWest 4044 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    11:40 AM → 12:49 PM1h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 67%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 11:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 1694

    9:55 PM → 11:04 PM1h 06m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    1.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (152 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 152 flights

    Find Delta 1694 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 4051 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    2:29 PM → 3:36 PM1h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    72%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 72% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 2:29 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · SkyWest 4074 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    6:20 PM → 7:27 PM1h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    60%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    68 min
    • Arrived on time 60% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 67% on time; 9 AM to noon: 86%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 6:20 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)77%

    864 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

  • Delta Air Lines76%

    366 flights · 77% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    402 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • Noon to 3 PM74%

    252 flights · avg delay 17 min

  • 6 to 9 PM67%

    169 flights · avg delay 32 min

  • After 9 PM77%

    358 flights · avg delay 16 min

Best day: Saturday (83%). Worst: Thursday (78%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
77
F
82
M
77
A
82
M
79
J
74
J
72
A
76
S
87
O
91
N
90
D
74

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)70%
  • Severe weather13%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume11%
  • Late-arriving aircraft6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to FSD…

MSP to FSD questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to FSD?
9 AM to noon: 86% of flights arrived on time, against 67% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to FSD?
SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 77% chance of operating and arriving on time over 864 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to FSD?
July (72% on time); the best was October (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops