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Route on-time record

DFW to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas Fort Worth International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 3,246 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 1276 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

DFW → MSP

Dallas-Fort Worth to Minneapolis: 3,246 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

74%

Cancelled

2.2%

avg delay 20 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 53% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

80% chance on time

Check DFW to MSP fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 1276

    6:00 AM → 8:26 AM2h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    1.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (359 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; After 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside DFW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 359 flights

    Find Delta 1276 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 2972

    10:34 AM → 1:00 PM2h 29m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    1.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (297 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside DFW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 297 flights

    Find Delta 2972 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 2977

    3:13 PM → 5:40 PM2h 27m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    22 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find Delta 2977 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · American 2385

    7:28 AM → 9:54 AM2h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as American 2220; its record covers all of them.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    2.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (310 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; After 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside DFW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 310 flights

    Find American 2385 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Frontier 3224

    1:32 PM → 4:02 PM2h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (162 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 63% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 162 flights

    Find Frontier 3224 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · American 2152

    7:17 AM → 9:43 AM2h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; After 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside DFW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find American 2152 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Delta 2970

    3:30 PM → 5:58 PM2h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    1.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (120 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 120 flights

    Find Delta 2970 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Delta 2971

    6:17 PM → 8:50 PM2h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    71%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    33 min
    • Arrived on time 71% of the time (91 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 50% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 91 flights

    Find Delta 2971 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · American 2122

    11:55 AM → 2:16 PM2h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 1198; its record covers all of them.

    71%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (71 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside DFW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 71 flights

    Find American 2122 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · American 3103

    2:52 PM → 5:19 PM2h 27m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    3.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (29 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.3% of the time (1 of 30).
    • Departs inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 29 flights

    Find American 3103 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines80%

    1,412 flights · 82% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines77%

    210 flights · 81% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel

  • American Airlines65%

    1,621 flights · 67% on time as flown · 3.1% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM87%

    753 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 9 AM to noon78%

    727 flights · avg delay 18 min

  • Noon to 3 PM72%

    308 flights · avg delay 21 min

  • 3 to 6 PM68%

    649 flights · avg delay 23 min

  • 6 to 9 PM69%

    569 flights · avg delay 25 min

  • After 9 PM53%

    240 flights · avg delay 34 min

Best day: Tuesday (79%). Worst: Sunday (74%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
78
F
85
M
76
A
75
M
70
J
61
J
69
A
75
S
81
O
85
N
84
D
76

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft50%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)32%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume12%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

DFW to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly DFW to MSP?
Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 53% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from DFW to MSP?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,412 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on DFW to MSP?
June (61% on time); the best was October (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from DFW

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops