Route on-time record

MSP to STL: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to St Louis (St. Louis Lambert International Airport). 1,875 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3469 at 8:05 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → STL

Minneapolis to St Louis: 1,875 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

0.9%

avg delay 15 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

93% on time vs 66% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

81% chance on time

Check MSP to STL fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $330 (Southwest 3082 on 2026-10-22). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 3469
8:05 AM → 9:35 AM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
92%
chance on time
On time (history)
98%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
1 min
- Arrived on time 98% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 66%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find Southwest 3469 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 381
7:55 AM → 9:35 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
90%
chance on time
On time (history)
94%
Cancelled
3.0%
Avg arrival delay
2 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 66%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 381 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Delta 1053
8:55 AM → 10:32 AM1h 37m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
85%
chance on time
On time (history)
92%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
6 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 66%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Delta 1053 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · SkyWest 3819 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
7:05 AM → 9:01 AM1h 56m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
84%
chance on time
On time (history)
85%
Cancelled
4.8%
Avg arrival delay
5 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 66%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 20 flights
Find 7:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Delta 1605
3:30 PM → 5:05 PM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
81%
chance on time
On time (history)
82%
Cancelled
1.0%
Avg arrival delay
12 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (300 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Strong track record · 300 flights
Find Delta 1605 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · SkyWest 4165 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
12:52 PM → 2:31 PM1h 39m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3870; its record covers all of them.
80%
chance on time
On time (history)
86%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (57 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 57 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (57 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 57 flights
Find 12:52 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Delta 2884
10:00 AM → 11:32 AM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
80%
chance on time
On time (history)
87%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (15 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (15 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 15 flights
Find Delta 2884 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · SkyWest 3884 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
10:05 AM → 11:48 AM1h 43m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
71%
Cancelled
2.8%
Avg arrival delay
46 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (35 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (35 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 35 flights
Find 10:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Delta 1609
9:50 PM → 11:25 PM1h 34m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
75%
Cancelled
1.4%
Avg arrival delay
18 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (358 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 358 flights
Find Delta 1609 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · SkyWest 3921 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
12:45 PM → 2:24 PM1h 39m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
73%
chance on time
On time (history)
66%
Cancelled
2.8%
Avg arrival delay
39 min
- Arrived on time 66% of the time (35 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (35 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 35 flights
Find 12:45 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Southwest Airlines81%
650 flights · 81% on time as flown · 0.4% cancel
Delta Air Lines79%
894 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel
SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)78%
331 flights · 79% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM93%
483 flights · avg delay 6 min
9 AM to noon82%
196 flights · avg delay 22 min
Noon to 3 PM78%
293 flights · avg delay 19 min
3 to 6 PM74%
483 flights · avg delay 16 min
6 to 9 PM66%
72 flights · avg delay 19 min
After 9 PM75%
348 flights · avg delay 18 min

Best day: Tuesday (85%). Worst: Monday (80%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)54%
Late-arriving aircraft26%
Air traffic control and airport volume14%
Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSP to STL questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to STL?: Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 66% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to STL?: Southwest, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 650 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to STL?: July (69% on time); the best was September (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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