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Route on-time record

MSP to SMF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Sacramento (Sacramento International Airport). 590 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 82% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 1701 at 10:45 AM.

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MSP → SMF

Minneapolis to Sacramento: 590 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

82%

Cancelled

0.5%

avg delay 11 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

91% on time vs 77% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

82% chance on time

Check MSP to SMF fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 1701

    10:45 AM → 12:24 PM3h 39m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    92%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 92% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 77%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find Delta 1701 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 574

    6:35 PM → 8:33 PM3h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    0.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (347 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 77% on time; 9 AM to noon: 91%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 347 flights

    Find Delta 574 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines82%

    590 flights · 82% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • 9 AM to noon91%

    226 flights · avg delay 4 min

  • 6 to 9 PM77%

    362 flights · avg delay 15 min

Best day: Tuesday (87%). Worst: Thursday (77%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
79
F
86
M
76
A
77
M
82
J
73
J
80
A
80
S
94
O
93
N
88
D
77

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)56%
  • Late-arriving aircraft21%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume20%
  • Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to SMF…

MSP to SMF questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to SMF?
9 AM to noon: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 77% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to SMF?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 82% chance of operating and arriving on time over 590 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to SMF?
June (73% on time); the best was September (94%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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Live status: FAA delays and ground stops