Route on-time record
MSP to RDU: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Raleigh/Durham (Raleigh-Durham International Airport). 1,234 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 81% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2783 at 7:05 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSP → RDU
Minneapolis to Raleigh/Durham: 1,234 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
81%
Cancelled
1.2%
avg delay 12 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
88% on time vs 75% noon to 3 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
80% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2783
7:05 AM → 10:39 AM2h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 89%
- Cancelled
- 1.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (101 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 75%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 101 flights
Find Delta 2783 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2521
10:30 AM → 2:02 PM2h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 84%
- Cancelled
- 0.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (196 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
Moderate track record · 196 flights
Find Delta 2521 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2932
8:32 PM → 11:59 PM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 1.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (360 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 360 flights
Find Delta 2932 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Delta 2699
2:44 PM → 6:15 PM2h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 1.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (270 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 75% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Strong track record · 270 flights
Find Delta 2699 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines80%
1,231 flights · 81% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM88%
334 flights · avg delay 8 min
- 9 AM to noon85%
210 flights · avg delay 7 min
- Noon to 3 PM75%
326 flights · avg delay 14 min
- 6 to 9 PM77%
364 flights · avg delay 16 min
Best day: Tuesday (86%). Worst: Saturday (80%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)55%
- Air traffic control and airport volume23%
- Late-arriving aircraft20%
- Severe weather2%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSP to RDU questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSP to RDU?
- Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures noon to 3 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSP to RDU?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,231 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSP to RDU?
- July (72% on time); the best was October (92%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSP
- RDU to MSP (return)
- MSP to ORD 70%
- MSP to DEN 78%
- MSP to ATL 83%
- MSP to DFW 76%
- MSP to PHX 80%
- MSP to SEA 81%
- MSP to MDW 79%
- MSP to DCA 74%
- MSP to CLT 80%
- MSP to LAS 82%
- MSP to EWR 77%
- MSP to LAX 82%
Most on-time flights from MSP on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops