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Route on-time record

MSP to BZN: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Bozeman (Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport). 804 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 79% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2946 at 11:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSP → BZN

Minneapolis to Bozeman: 804 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

79%

Cancelled

0.4%

avg delay 11 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 70% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

79% chance on time

Check MSP to BZN fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 2946

    11:00 AM → 12:28 PM2h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (164 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 165 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 164 flights

    Find Delta 2946 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 1226

    11:32 AM → 1:06 PM2h 34m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    84%
    Cancelled
    0.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 84% of the time (288 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 288 flights

    Find Delta 1226 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 2954

    6:40 PM → 8:14 PM2h 31m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (323 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 70% on time; Before 9 AM: 89%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 323 flights

    Find Delta 2954 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines79%

    804 flights · 79% on time as flown · 0.4% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    92 flights · avg delay 6 min

  • 9 AM to noon83%

    271 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • Noon to 3 PM86%

    92 flights · avg delay 8 min

  • 6 to 9 PM70%

    121 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • After 9 PM74%

    228 flights · avg delay 15 min

Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (77%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
79
M
78
A
87
M
83
J
73
J
78
A
82
S
92
O
92
N
89
D
78

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)50%
  • Late-arriving aircraft24%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume21%
  • Severe weather5%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to BZN…

MSP to BZN questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to BZN?
Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 70% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to BZN?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 804 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to BZN?
June (73% on time); the best was October (92%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSP

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops