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Route on-time record

MSP to BNA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field) to Nashville (Nashville International Airport). 1,701 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 82% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 513 at 6:15 AM.

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MSP → BNA

Minneapolis to Nashville: 1,701 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

82%

Cancelled

1.4%

avg delay 10 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

91% on time vs 75% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

82% chance on time

Check MSP to BNA fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 513

    6:15 AM → 8:15 AM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    92%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    98%
    Cancelled
    3.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 98% of the time (52 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.7% of the time (2 of 54).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 75%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 52 flights

    Find Southwest 513 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Delta 2724

    6:55 AM → 8:55 AM2h 06m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    0.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (333 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 75%).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 333 flights

    Find Delta 2724 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Delta 2843

    1:10 PM → 3:14 PM2h 04m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (48 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 48 flights

    Find Delta 2843 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Delta 2612

    3:38 PM → 5:41 PM2h 03m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (264 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 75% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Strong track record · 264 flights

    Find Delta 2612 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Delta 1144

    8:45 PM → 10:51 PM2h 06m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (356 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 356 flights

    Find Delta 1144 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 2600

    4:55 PM → 6:55 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    67%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    67%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 67% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 75% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
    • Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 54 flights

    Find Southwest 2600 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines82%

    1,214 flights · 83% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel

  • Southwest Airlines79%

    487 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM91%

    524 flights · avg delay 6 min

  • Noon to 3 PM85%

    340 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 3 to 6 PM75%

    397 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • 6 to 9 PM75%

    399 flights · avg delay 14 min

Best day: Wednesday (87%). Worst: Friday (80%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
82
F
86
M
80
A
82
M
81
J
76
J
73
A
83
S
89
O
89
N
89
D
80

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)38%
  • Late-arriving aircraft31%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume27%
  • Severe weather3%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from MSP to BNA…

MSP to BNA questions

What time of day is best to fly MSP to BNA?
Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSP to BNA?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 82% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,214 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSP to BNA?
July (73% on time); the best was September (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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