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Route on-time record

MSN to DFW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Madison (Dane County Regional Truax Field) to Dallas-Fort Worth (Dallas Fort Worth International Airport). 1,093 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 73% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was American 2007 at 7:10 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSN → DFW

Madison to Dallas-Fort Worth: 1,093 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

73%

Cancelled

2.3%

avg delay 33 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

79% on time vs 68% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

American

71% chance on time

Check MSN to DFW fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · American 2007

    7:10 AM → 9:50 AM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    0.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (119 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 79% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 68%).

    Moderate track record · 119 flights

    Find American 2007 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · American 1538

    6:30 AM → 9:18 AM2h 48m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    2.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (177 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 79% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 68%).

    Moderate track record · 177 flights

    Find American 1538 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · American 2142

    11:23 AM → 1:51 PM2h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 2139; its record covers all of them.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    2.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (188 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 188 flights

    Find American 2142 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · American 2372

    11:50 AM → 2:24 PM2h 34m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    2.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    61 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 43 flights

    Find American 2372 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · American 1826

    3:29 PM → 6:10 PM2h 41m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as American 2229; its record covers all of them.

    65%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    61%
    Cancelled
    1.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    43 min
    • Arrived on time 61% of the time (196 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 79%).
    • Lands inside DFW's trouble window: 53% of its 139 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 196 flights

    Find American 1826 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · American 2141

    5:11 PM → 7:49 PM2h 38m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    60%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    9.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    113 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 79%).
    • Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 10 flights

    Find American 2141 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • American Airlines71%

    1,091 flights · 73% on time as flown · 2.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM79%

    365 flights · avg delay 33 min

  • 9 AM to noon71%

    363 flights · avg delay 32 min

  • 3 to 6 PM68%

    361 flights · avg delay 35 min

Best day: Thursday (77%). Worst: Sunday (70%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
82
M
77
A
77
M
69
J
68
J
66
A
69
S
72
O
79
N
79
D
81

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)46%
  • Late-arriving aircraft38%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume10%
  • Severe weather7%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSN to DFW questions

What time of day is best to fly MSN to DFW?
Before 9 AM: 79% of flights arrived on time, against 68% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSN to DFW?
American, with a season-adjusted 71% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,091 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSN to DFW?
July (66% on time); the best was February (82%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSN

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops