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Route on-time record

MSN to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Madison (Dane County Regional Truax Field) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 1,172 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 75% arrived within 15 minutes and 4.0% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was PSA 5503 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSN → DCA

Madison to Washington: 1,172 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

75%

Cancelled

4.0%

avg delay 22 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

88% on time vs 67% 9 AM to noon

Most reliable airline

PSA

74% chance on time

Check MSN to DCA fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · PSA 5503 · sold as American Eagle

    6:00 AM → 9:12 AM2h 12m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5054, 5390; its record covers all of them.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    4.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (240 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.3% of the time (11 of 254).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 9 AM to noon: 67%).

    Strong track record · 240 flights

    Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · PSA 5308 · sold as American Eagle

    1:07 PM → 4:20 PM2h 13m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    64%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 64% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find 1:07 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Republic 5645 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    5:20 PM → 8:23 PM2h 03m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    71%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    27 min
    • Arrived on time 71% of the time (292 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).

    Strong track record · 292 flights

    Find 5:20 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · PSA 5221 · sold as American Eagle

    4:20 PM → 7:31 PM2h 11m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    72%
    Cancelled
    5.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 72% of the time (191 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.4% of the time (11 of 204).
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 191 flights

    Find 4:20 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · PSA 5202 · sold as American Eagle

    4:12 PM → 7:29 PM2h 17m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    70%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 70% of the time (37 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 38 scheduled flights.
    • 71% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (37 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 37 flights

    Find 4:12 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · PSA 5647 · sold as American Eagle

    10:34 AM → 1:44 PM2h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    67%
    Cancelled
    4.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    28 min
    • Arrived on time 67% of the time (167 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.0% of the time (7 of 174).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (9 AM to noon: 67% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 167 flights

    Find 10:34 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)74%

    724 flights · 77% on time as flown · 4.0% cancel

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)68%

    424 flights · 71% on time as flown · 4.2% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM88%

    344 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 9 AM to noon67%

    176 flights · avg delay 28 min

  • Noon to 3 PM75%

    133 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • 3 to 6 PM68%

    518 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Saturday (88%). Worst: Friday (74%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
77
F
69
M
76
A
78
M
74
J
76
J
80
A
77
S
87
O
88
N
79
D
70

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft44%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)26%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume23%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSN to DCA questions

What time of day is best to fly MSN to DCA?
Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 67% for departures 9 AM to noon. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSN to DCA?
PSA, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 724 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSN to DCA?
February (69% on time); the best was October (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSN

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops