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Route on-time record

MSN to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Madison (Dane County Regional Truax Field) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 1,115 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 83% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 1274 at 6:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSN → MSP

Madison to Minneapolis: 1,115 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

83%

Cancelled

1.2%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

91% on time vs 75% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

89% chance on time

Check MSN to MSP fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 1274

    6:00 AM → 7:09 AM1h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    90%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 90% of the time (144 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 75%).

    Moderate track record · 144 flights

    Find Delta 1274 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · SkyWest 4010 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    9:06 AM → 10:19 AM1h 13m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    90%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 90% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find 9:06 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · SkyWest 4032 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    2:33 PM → 3:47 PM1h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    3.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (50 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.8% of the time (2 of 52).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Short track record (50 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 50 flights

    Find 2:33 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 4103 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    10:48 AM → 12:00 PM1h 12m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    2.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (76 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 76 flights

    Find 10:48 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · SkyWest 4079 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    6:29 PM → 7:43 PM1h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 3946; its record covers all of them.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (48 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Short track record (48 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 48 flights

    Find 6:29 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines89%

    357 flights · 91% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)79%

    758 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM91%

    350 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    278 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • Noon to 3 PM75%

    278 flights · avg delay 23 min

  • 3 to 6 PM75%

    105 flights · avg delay 35 min

  • 6 to 9 PM79%

    104 flights · avg delay 13 min

Best day: Saturday (88%). Worst: Friday (82%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
80
F
82
M
86
A
86
M
85
J
78
J
80
A
83
S
84
O
93
N
90
D
85

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)76%
  • Severe weather15%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume7%
  • Late-arriving aircraft2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSN to MSP questions

What time of day is best to fly MSN to MSP?
Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSN to MSP?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 89% chance of operating and arriving on time over 357 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSN to MSP?
June (78% on time); the best was October (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSN

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops