Route on-time record
MSN to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Madison (Dane County Regional Truax Field) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 3,955 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 71% arrived within 15 minutes and 3.7% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Envoy 3891 at 5:30 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MSN → ORD
Madison to Chicago: 3,955 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
71%
Cancelled
3.7%
avg delay 27 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
81% on time vs 51% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
74% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Envoy 3891 · sold as American Eagle
5:30 AM → 6:47 AM1h 17m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 95%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
- Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 5:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Republic 4738 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
10:19 AM → 11:33 AM1h 14m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 93%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 10:19 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Republic 3710 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
10:05 AM → 11:17 AM1h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-28.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- 62% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find 10:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Envoy 3464 · sold as American Eagle
6:15 AM → 7:29 AM1h 14m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 89%
- Cancelled
- 7.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 14 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (72 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 7.7% of the time (6 of 78).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
Moderate track record · 72 flights
Find 6:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Republic 3640 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
5:00 AM → 6:12 AM1h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-28.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find 5:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Envoy 3506 · sold as American Eagle
9:18 AM → 10:31 AM1h 13m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 30 scheduled flights.
- 64% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (30 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 30 flights
Find 9:18 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · SkyWest 6494 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
5:00 AM → 6:09 AM1h 09m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as SkyWest 5995, 5611, 4961; its record covers all of them.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 3.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 27 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (123 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.9% of the time (5 of 128).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
Moderate track record · 123 flights
Find 5:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Republic 4432 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
7:50 AM → 9:04 AM1h 14m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find 7:50 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Envoy 4018 · sold as American Eagle
8:19 AM → 9:43 AM1h 24m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 81% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 51%).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 8:19 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Envoy 3716 · sold as American Eagle
2:40 PM → 3:54 PM1h 14m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 2:40 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)74%
692 flights · 76% on time as flown · 2.6% cancel
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)73%
1,010 flights · 76% on time as flown · 3.4% cancel
- United Airlines70%
863 flights · 72% on time as flown · 2.3% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)64%
1,282 flights · 67% on time as flown · 4.9% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)47%
108 flights · 34% on time as flown · 7.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM81%
1,389 flights · avg delay 17 min
- 9 AM to noon78%
563 flights · avg delay 22 min
- Noon to 3 PM73%
789 flights · avg delay 31 min
- 3 to 6 PM51%
756 flights · avg delay 43 min
- 6 to 9 PM64%
453 flights · avg delay 28 min
Best day: Tuesday (78%). Worst: Friday (72%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft37%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)27%
- Air traffic control and airport volume27%
- Severe weather10%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MSN to ORD questions
- What time of day is best to fly MSN to ORD?
- Before 9 AM: 81% of flights arrived on time, against 51% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MSN to ORD?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 692 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MSN to ORD?
- January (66% on time); the best was February (80%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MSN
- ORD to MSN (return)
- MSN to DCA 75%
- MSN to MSP 83%
- MSN to DFW 73%
- MSN to DEN 79%
- MSN to ATL 90%
- MSN to CLT 84%
- MSN to DTW 82%
- MSN to LGA 85%
- MSN to PHX 80%
- MSN to EWR 88%
- MSN to PHL 83%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops