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Route on-time record

MSN to PHX: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Madison (Dane County Regional Truax Field) to Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport). 532 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was American 888 at 2:39 PM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MSN → PHX

Madison to Phoenix: 532 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

1.1%

avg delay 19 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

83% on time vs 72% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

American

79% chance on time

Check MSN to PHX fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $637 (American 2732 on 2026-11-29). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · American 888

    2:39 PM → 4:10 PM3h 31m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • Short track record (9 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 9 flights

    Find American 888 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · American 634

    7:35 AM → 9:20 AM3h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (207 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 72%).

    Strong track record · 207 flights

    Find American 634 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · American 2714

    7:15 AM → 9:11 AM3h 56m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (152 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 72%).

    Moderate track record · 152 flights

    Find American 2714 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · American 1712

    6:02 PM → 7:41 PM3h 39m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (37 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 37 scheduled flights.
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 65% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 37 flights

    Find American 1712 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · American 2644

    5:45 PM → 7:25 PM3h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    67%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    60%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    41 min
    • Arrived on time 60% of the time (68 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 72% on time; Before 9 AM: 83%).
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 68 flights

    Find American 2644 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • American Airlines79%

    530 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM83%

    363 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • 3 to 6 PM72%

    104 flights · avg delay 29 min

  • 6 to 9 PM73%

    37 flights · avg delay 26 min

Best day: Monday (84%). Worst: Thursday (77%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
75
F
80
M
79
A
77
M
76
J
78
J
88
A
77
S
82
O
85
N
88
D
80

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft54%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)35%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume8%
  • Severe weather3%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MSN to PHX questions

What time of day is best to fly MSN to PHX?
Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 72% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MSN to PHX?
American, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 530 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MSN to PHX?
January (75% on time); the best was July (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MSN

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops