Route on-time record
BUF to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 1,188 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 65% arrived within 15 minutes and 5.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was PSA 5312 at 5:30 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
BUF → DCA
Buffalo to Washington: 1,188 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
65%
Cancelled
5.5%
avg delay 40 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
87% on time vs 48% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
72% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $116 (American 5075 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · PSA 5312 · sold as American Eagle
5:30 AM → 6:57 AM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as PSA 5243; its record covers all of them.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 4.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 32 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (129 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 4.4% of the time (6 of 135).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 48%).
- 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 129 flights
Find 5:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · PSA 5051 · sold as American Eagle
5:00 AM → 6:32 AM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 89%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 48%).
- Short track record (9 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 9 flights
Find 5:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · PSA 5106 · sold as American Eagle
4:55 PM → 6:27 PM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
59%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 67%
- Cancelled
- 10.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 25 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 48% on time; Before 9 AM: 87%).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 61% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 9 flights
Find 4:55 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · PSA 5129 · sold as American Eagle
12:28 PM → 1:59 PM1h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
55%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 66%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 66% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 53% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 12:28 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · PSA 5104 · sold as American Eagle
12:49 PM → 2:19 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5531; its record covers all of them.
48%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 48%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 65 min
- Arrived on time 48% of the time (46 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 46 scheduled flights.
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 73% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 46 flights
Find 12:49 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Envoy 3956 · sold as American Eagle
5:32 PM → 6:59 PM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-19.
46%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 51%
- Cancelled
- 8.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 39 min
- Arrived on time 51% of the time (125 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 8.7% of the time (12 of 138).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 48% on time; Before 9 AM: 87%).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Moderate track record · 125 flights
Find 5:32 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)72%
278 flights · 77% on time as flown · 3.3% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)59%
732 flights · 62% on time as flown · 5.9% cancel
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)55%
172 flights · 56% on time as flown · 7.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM87%
363 flights · avg delay 20 min
- 9 AM to noon74%
119 flights · avg delay 32 min
- Noon to 3 PM55%
372 flights · avg delay 52 min
- 3 to 6 PM48%
334 flights · avg delay 52 min
Best day: Tuesday (76%). Worst: Monday (72%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
BUF → BWI 85% chance on time
Buffalo Niagara International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 1,732 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
ROC → BWI 81% chance on time
Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 1,104 flights a year · 85 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
ROC → DCA 64% chance on time
Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport · 1,051 flights a year · 55 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft48%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)26%
- Air traffic control and airport volume22%
- Severe weather4%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
BUF to DCA questions
- What time of day is best to fly BUF to DCA?
- Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 48% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from BUF to DCA?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 72% chance of operating and arriving on time over 278 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on BUF to DCA?
- February (62% on time); the best was October (84%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from BUF
- DCA to BUF (return)
- BUF to ORD 73%
- BUF to LGA 77%
- BUF to MCO 76%
- BUF to BWI 86%
- BUF to ATL 80%
- BUF to CLT 78%
- BUF to JFK 79%
- BUF to BOS 74%
- BUF to DTW 81%
- BUF to MDW 78%
- BUF to TPA 77%
- BUF to DEN 80%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops