Route on-time record
BUF to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 2,176 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 73% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was American 1195 at 6:00 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
BUF → ORD
Buffalo to Chicago: 2,176 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
73%
Cancelled
2.9%
avg delay 27 min
Best time to leave
9 AM to noon
86% on time vs 53% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
American
81% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $112 (American 2921 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · American 1195
6:00 AM → 7:03 AM2h 03m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 3001; its record covers all of them.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 3.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (193 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.5% of the time (7 of 200).
Moderate track record · 193 flights
Find American 1195 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · American 2182
11:31 AM → 12:34 PM2h 03m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 53%).
- Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find American 2182 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Republic 4413 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
10:01 AM → 11:09 AM2h 08m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 53%).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 10:01 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Envoy 3376 · sold as American Eagle
11:15 AM → 12:16 PM2h 01m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (17 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 53%).
- Short track record (17 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 17 flights
Find 11:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · United 1363
11:02 AM → 12:00 PM1h 58m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 86% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 53%).
- Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 21 flights
Find United 1363 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · United 543
7:00 AM → 7:58 AM1h 58m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 81%
- Cancelled
- 2.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (106 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
Moderate track record · 106 flights
Find United 543 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Republic 4340 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:06 AM → 7:20 AM2h 14m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 79%
- Cancelled
- 4.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 79% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find 6:06 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · American 2112
8:00 AM → 9:05 AM2h 05m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 2.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 35 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (69 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
Moderate track record · 69 flights
Find American 2112 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Republic 4420 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
12:31 PM → 1:43 PM2h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 83%
- Cancelled
- 7.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 83% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- 65% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find 12:31 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · American 2957
3:01 PM → 4:07 PM2h 06m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
70%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 67%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 20 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 53% on time; 9 AM to noon: 86%).
- Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find American 2957 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- American Airlines81%
466 flights · 85% on time as flown · 2.3% cancel
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)72%
336 flights · 74% on time as flown · 3.6% cancel
- United Airlines72%
609 flights · 74% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)70%
474 flights · 71% on time as flown · 2.9% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)57%
290 flights · 56% on time as flown · 5.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM83%
782 flights · avg delay 21 min
- 9 AM to noon86%
467 flights · avg delay 15 min
- Noon to 3 PM69%
210 flights · avg delay 30 min
- 3 to 6 PM53%
596 flights · avg delay 42 min
- 6 to 9 PM68%
118 flights · avg delay 23 min
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
ROC → MDW 81% chance on time
Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 431 flights a year · 70 mi from your airports · yours: 71%
BUF → MDW 77% chance on time
Buffalo Niagara International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 829 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 71%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft33%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)32%
- Air traffic control and airport volume30%
- Severe weather5%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
BUF to ORD questions
- What time of day is best to fly BUF to ORD?
- 9 AM to noon: 86% of flights arrived on time, against 53% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from BUF to ORD?
- American, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 466 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on BUF to ORD?
- January (66% on time); the best was May (82%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from BUF
- ORD to BUF (return)
- BUF to LGA 77%
- BUF to MCO 76%
- BUF to BWI 86%
- BUF to ATL 80%
- BUF to CLT 78%
- BUF to JFK 79%
- BUF to DCA 65%
- BUF to BOS 74%
- BUF to DTW 81%
- BUF to MDW 78%
- BUF to TPA 77%
- BUF to DEN 80%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops