Route on-time record
DCA to BUF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport) to Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport). 1,188 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 65% arrived within 15 minutes and 5.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was PSA 5129 at 10:31 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
DCA → BUF
Washington to Buffalo: 1,188 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
65%
Cancelled
5.5%
avg delay 27 min
Best time to leave
6 to 9 PM
88% on time vs 50% after 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Envoy
65% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $116 (American 3853 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · PSA 5129 · sold as American Eagle
10:31 AM → 11:58 AM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
72%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 11 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 76% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 10:31 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · PSA 5104 · sold as American Eagle
10:51 AM → 12:19 PM1h 28m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5531; its record covers all of them.
64%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 61%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 51 min
- Arrived on time 61% of the time (46 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 46 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 77% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 46 flights
Find 10:51 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Envoy 3956 · sold as American Eagle
3:35 PM → 5:02 PM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
63%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 64%
- Cancelled
- 5.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 26 min
- Arrived on time 64% of the time (131 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 5.1% of the time (7 of 138).
- Departs inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 67% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 131 flights
Find 3:35 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · PSA 5106 · sold as American Eagle
2:55 PM → 4:25 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
56%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 40%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 23 min
- Arrived on time 40% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 10 flights
Find 2:55 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · PSA 5054 · sold as American Eagle
10:30 PM → 11:56 PM1h 26m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5243; its record covers all of them.
50%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 53%
- Cancelled
- 3.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 31 min
- Arrived on time 53% of the time (51 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.8% of the time (2 of 53).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 50% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 88%).
- Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 51 flights
Find 10:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · PSA 5158 · sold as American Eagle
10:08 PM → 11:31 PM1h 23m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
40%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 33%
- Cancelled
- 13.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 68 min
- Arrived on time 33% of the time (61 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 13.9% of the time (10 of 72).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 50% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 88%).
- Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 61 flights
Find 10:08 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)65%
172 flights · 68% on time as flown · 5.7% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)62%
733 flights · 65% on time as flown · 4.7% cancel
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)58%
277 flights · 63% on time as flown · 7.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- 9 AM to noon74%
368 flights · avg delay 20 min
- Noon to 3 PM74%
136 flights · avg delay 17 min
- 3 to 6 PM63%
339 flights · avg delay 35 min
- 6 to 9 PM88%
37 flights · avg delay 8 min
- After 9 PM50%
308 flights · avg delay 34 min
Best day: Saturday (78%). Worst: Friday (68%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
BWI → BUF 74% chance on time
Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport to Buffalo Niagara International Airport · 1,730 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
BWI → ROC 74% chance on time
Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport to Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport · 1,105 flights a year · 85 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
DCA → ROC 65% chance on time
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport to Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport · 1,050 flights a year · 55 mi from your airports · yours: 62%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft58%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)18%
- Air traffic control and airport volume13%
- Severe weather11%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
DCA to BUF questions
- What time of day is best to fly DCA to BUF?
- 6 to 9 PM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 50% for departures after 9 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from DCA to BUF?
- Envoy, with a season-adjusted 65% chance of operating and arriving on time over 172 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on DCA to BUF?
- February (62% on time); the best was October (84%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from DCA
- BUF to DCA (return)
- DCA to BOS 71%
- DCA to ORD 74%
- DCA to ATL 78%
- DCA to LGA 67%
- DCA to MCO 74%
- DCA to BNA 77%
- DCA to MIA 75%
- DCA to DFW 77%
- DCA to IAH 81%
- DCA to DTW 76%
- DCA to CLT 78%
- DCA to MSP 78%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops