Route on-time record
BUF to TPA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport) to Tampa (Tampa International Airport). 783 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 939 at 6:15 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
BUF → TPA
Buffalo to Tampa: 783 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
77%
Cancelled
0.5%
avg delay 17 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
93% on time vs 64% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
78% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $476 (Southwest 1915 on 2026-10-19). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 939
6:15 AM → 8:55 AM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 96%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 96% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find Southwest 939 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 1281
6:45 AM → 9:30 AM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
86%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 33 flights
Find Southwest 1281 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 1929
10:15 AM → 12:50 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 100%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 1929 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Frontier 1243
7:41 PM → 10:41 PM3h 00m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-13.
67%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 68%
- Cancelled
- 0.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 26 min
- Arrived on time 68% of the time (142 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 64% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
- 65% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 142 flights
Find Frontier 1243 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Southwest 2957
7:15 PM → 9:55 PM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
63%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 61%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 30 min
- Arrived on time 61% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 64% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
- 75% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find Southwest 2957 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Southwest 952
7:30 PM → 10:15 PM2h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
60%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 47%
- Cancelled
- 3.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 32 min
- Arrived on time 47% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 64% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
- 89% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 952 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines78%
635 flights · 79% on time as flown · 0.4% cancel
- Frontier Airlines71%
148 flights · 68% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM93%
276 flights · avg delay 7 min
- 9 AM to noon76%
39 flights · avg delay 16 min
- Noon to 3 PM83%
81 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 3 to 6 PM65%
186 flights · avg delay 25 min
- 6 to 9 PM64%
200 flights · avg delay 25 min
Best day: Tuesday (83%). Worst: Sunday (71%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft65%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)18%
- Air traffic control and airport volume17%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
BUF to TPA questions
- What time of day is best to fly BUF to TPA?
- Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 64% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from BUF to TPA?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 78% chance of operating and arriving on time over 635 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on BUF to TPA?
- July (56% on time); the best was November (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from BUF
- TPA to BUF (return)
- BUF to ORD 73%
- BUF to LGA 77%
- BUF to MCO 76%
- BUF to BWI 86%
- BUF to ATL 80%
- BUF to CLT 78%
- BUF to JFK 79%
- BUF to DCA 65%
- BUF to BOS 74%
- BUF to DTW 81%
- BUF to MDW 78%
- BUF to DEN 80%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops