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Route on-time record

ROC to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Rochester (Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 1,051 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 68% arrived within 15 minutes and 5.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4796 at 5:15 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

ROC → DCA

Rochester to Washington: 1,051 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

68%

Cancelled

5.5%

avg delay 35 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 47% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Envoy

72% chance on time

Check ROC to DCA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $266 (American 5535 on 2026-11-13). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Republic 4796 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    5:15 AM → 6:42 AM1h 27m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-19.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    41 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (12 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 47%).
    • Short track record (12 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 12 flights

    Find 5:15 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · PSA 5351 · sold as American Eagle

    5:20 AM → 6:45 AM1h 25m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5535; its record covers all of them.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    5.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    32 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (281 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.1% of the time (15 of 296).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 47%).

    Strong track record · 281 flights

    Find 5:20 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · PSA 5374 · sold as American Eagle

    11:51 AM → 1:19 PM1h 28m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    63%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    64%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    43 min
    • Arrived on time 64% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find 11:51 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Republic 4800 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    5:46 PM → 7:15 PM1h 29m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-17.

    60%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    7.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (12 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 47% on time; Before 9 AM: 89%).
    • Short track record (12 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 12 flights

    Find 5:46 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · PSA 5661 · sold as American Eagle

    12:10 PM → 1:40 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    57%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    61%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    33 min
    • Arrived on time 61% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find 12:10 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · PSA 5175 · sold as American Eagle

    12:18 PM → 1:44 PM1h 26m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    56%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    58%
    Cancelled
    14.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    18 min
    • Arrived on time 58% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find 12:18 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · PSA 5409 · sold as American Eagle

    5:43 PM → 7:15 PM1h 32m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-18.

    49%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    59%
    Cancelled
    6.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    21 min
    • Arrived on time 59% of the time (29 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.5% of the time (2 of 31).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 47% on time; Before 9 AM: 89%).
    • 51% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 29 flights

    Find 5:43 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · PSA 5375 · sold as American Eagle

    5:29 PM → 6:59 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5546; its record covers all of them.

    41%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    38%
    Cancelled
    6.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    79 min
    • Arrived on time 38% of the time (119 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.2% of the time (8 of 129).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 47% on time; Before 9 AM: 89%).
    • Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 119 flights

    Find 5:29 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)72%

    88 flights · 84% on time as flown · 3.9% cancel

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)71%

    159 flights · 77% on time as flown · 5.9% cancel

  • PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)61%

    804 flights · 64% on time as flown · 5.8% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    331 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • 9 AM to noon71%

    218 flights · avg delay 37 min

  • Noon to 3 PM61%

    148 flights · avg delay 35 min

  • 3 to 6 PM47%

    328 flights · avg delay 55 min

Best day: Saturday (83%). Worst: Friday (73%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • BUF → BWI 85% chance on time

    Buffalo Niagara International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 1,732 flights a year · 85 mi from your airports · yours: 64%

    Rank flightsFares

  • ROC → BWI 81% chance on time

    Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 1,104 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 64%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
73
F
64
M
75
A
75
M
75
J
77
J
75
A
76
S
84
O
90
N
76
D
73

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft45%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume26%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)24%
  • Severe weather5%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

ROC to DCA questions

What time of day is best to fly ROC to DCA?
Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 47% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from ROC to DCA?
Envoy, with a season-adjusted 72% chance of operating and arriving on time over 88 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on ROC to DCA?
February (64% on time); the best was October (90%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from ROC

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops