Route on-time record
BUF to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 829 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2345 at 6:00 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
BUF → MDW
Buffalo to Chicago: 829 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
78%
Cancelled
1.2%
avg delay 13 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
91% on time vs 59% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
78% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $244 (Southwest 3867 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 2345
6:00 AM → 6:40 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Short track record (39 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 39 flights
Find Southwest 2345 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 3686
8:25 AM → 9:05 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 1295; its record covers all of them.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 89%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (18 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (18 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 18 flights
Find Southwest 3686 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 1303
5:45 AM → 6:35 AM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 87%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 1303 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 935
11:25 AM → 12:05 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 87%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 935 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Southwest 1862
8:00 AM → 8:40 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 1862 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Southwest 342
3:10 PM → 3:50 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-27.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 14 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find Southwest 342 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Southwest 754
12:15 PM → 12:55 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 754 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Southwest 2737
6:55 PM → 7:35 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-27.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 69%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 23 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 59% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
- 75% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find Southwest 2737 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Southwest 1305
12:05 PM → 12:50 PM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
71%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 43%
- Cancelled
- 6.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 43% of the time (14 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (14 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 14 flights
Find Southwest 1305 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Southwest 4020
8:00 PM → 8:40 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
61%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 52%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 26 min
- Arrived on time 52% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 59% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
- 60% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 4020 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines78%
829 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM91%
357 flights · avg delay 6 min
- 9 AM to noon82%
50 flights · avg delay 10 min
- Noon to 3 PM80%
89 flights · avg delay 8 min
- 3 to 6 PM74%
89 flights · avg delay 21 min
- 6 to 9 PM59%
239 flights · avg delay 24 min
Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (76%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
ROC → MDW 81% chance on time
Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 431 flights a year · 55 mi from your airports · yours: 77%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft50%
- Air traffic control and airport volume28%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)21%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
BUF to MDW questions
- What time of day is best to fly BUF to MDW?
- Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 59% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from BUF to MDW?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 78% chance of operating and arriving on time over 829 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on BUF to MDW?
- March (71% on time); the best was February (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from BUF
- MDW to BUF (return)
- BUF to ORD 73%
- BUF to LGA 77%
- BUF to MCO 76%
- BUF to BWI 86%
- BUF to ATL 80%
- BUF to CLT 78%
- BUF to JFK 79%
- BUF to DCA 65%
- BUF to BOS 74%
- BUF to DTW 81%
- BUF to TPA 77%
- BUF to DEN 80%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops