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Route on-time record

TPA to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 3,257 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 72% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was American 354 at 6:38 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

TPA → ORD

Tampa to Chicago: 3,257 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

72%

Cancelled

1.5%

avg delay 25 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

88% on time vs 52% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

United

74% chance on time

Check TPA to ORD fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $155 (United 1010 on 2026-11-06). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · American 354

    6:38 AM → 8:51 AM3h 13m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    90%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 90% of the time (206 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 209 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 52%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 206 flights

    Find American 354 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · American 1388

    6:14 AM → 8:25 AM3h 11m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    87%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    1.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (151 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 52%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 151 flights

    Find American 1388 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · United 2189

    7:15 AM → 9:21 AM3h 06m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as United 1778; its record covers all of them.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (190 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 52%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 190 flights

    Find United 2189 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · United 2223

    12:20 PM → 2:25 PM3h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as United 841, 463; its record covers all of them.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (86 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.

    Moderate track record · 86 flights

    Find United 2223 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · American 2834

    1:35 PM → 3:41 PM3h 06m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    36 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 98% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find American 2834 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · American 1848

    11:45 AM → 1:52 PM3h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    74%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find American 1848 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · United 2179

    2:25 PM → 4:29 PM3h 04m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29. Same departure also flew as United 1369; its record covers all of them.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    72%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    31 min
    • Arrived on time 72% of the time (75 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 75 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.

    Moderate track record · 75 flights

    Find United 2179 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · United 2801

    7:42 PM → 9:53 PM3h 11m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 52% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find United 2801 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Frontier 2317

    10:08 AM → 12:24 PM3h 14m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-17.

    66%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    70%
    Cancelled
    4.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    42 min
    • Arrived on time 70% of the time (110 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.3% of the time (5 of 115).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 61% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 110 flights

    Find Frontier 2317 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · United 1010

    5:00 PM → 7:05 PM3h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    64%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    66%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    27 min
    • Arrived on time 66% of the time (62 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 64 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.

    Moderate track record · 62 flights

    Find United 1010 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • United Airlines74%

    1,401 flights · 75% on time as flown · 0.6% cancel

  • American Airlines71%

    1,141 flights · 73% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel

  • Southwest Airlines69%

    211 flights · 68% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

  • Spirit Airlines66%

    311 flights · 67% on time as flown · 2.7% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines61%

    190 flights · 59% on time as flown · 3.6% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM88%

    833 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 9 AM to noon78%

    382 flights · avg delay 19 min

  • Noon to 3 PM77%

    972 flights · avg delay 19 min

  • 3 to 6 PM53%

    557 flights · avg delay 36 min

  • 6 to 9 PM52%

    467 flights · avg delay 48 min

Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Sunday (74%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • TPA → MDW 74% chance on time

    Tampa International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 1,630 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 71%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
77
F
80
M
72
A
79
M
72
J
68
J
64
A
74
S
88
O
87
N
85
D
80

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft37%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume35%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)22%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

TPA to ORD questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to ORD?
Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 52% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to ORD?
United, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,401 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to ORD?
July (64% on time); the best was September (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from TPA

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops