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Route on-time record

ORD to TPA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) to Tampa (Tampa International Airport). 3,259 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was United 2326 at 7:21 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

ORD → TPA

Chicago to Tampa: 3,259 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

74%

Cancelled

1.4%

avg delay 22 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

83% on time vs 63% noon to 3 PM

Most reliable airline

United

79% chance on time

Check ORD to TPA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $196 (United 2326 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · United 2326

    7:21 AM → 11:14 AM2h 54m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    0.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (231 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 63%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 231 flights

    Find United 2326 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · United 1834

    10:50 AM → 2:46 PM2h 56m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (362 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 362 flights

    Find United 1834 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · United 1414

    9:00 AM → 12:55 PM2h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (77 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 77 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 77 flights

    Find United 1414 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · United 1897

    3:40 PM → 7:35 PM2h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    3.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    35 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.1% of the time (1 of 32).
    • Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 73% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 31 flights

    Find United 1897 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · United 1057

    4:10 PM → 7:59 PM2h 49m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    24 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (102 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 102 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 102 flights

    Find United 1057 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · American 3059

    6:50 AM → 10:36 AM2h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 63%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find American 3059 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · American 512

    7:09 AM → 10:49 AM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    71%
    Cancelled
    6.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 71% of the time (28 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.7% of the time (2 of 30).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 63%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 28 flights

    Find American 512 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · United 1393

    5:56 PM → 9:49 PM2h 53m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 52% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find United 1393 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · American 2920

    8:29 AM → 12:14 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    2.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (280 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 63%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 280 flights

    Find American 2920 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · United 2481

    6:10 PM → 9:59 PM2h 49m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-28.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    48%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    41 min
    • Arrived on time 48% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 67% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 21 flights

    Find United 2481 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • United Airlines79%

    1,401 flights · 79% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel

  • Southwest Airlines72%

    211 flights · 71% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

  • Spirit Airlines71%

    313 flights · 72% on time as flown · 2.2% cancel

  • American Airlines68%

    1,142 flights · 69% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines64%

    189 flights · 63% on time as flown · 3.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM83%

    743 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 9 AM to noon79%

    832 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • Noon to 3 PM63%

    615 flights · avg delay 30 min

  • 3 to 6 PM72%

    547 flights · avg delay 30 min

  • 6 to 9 PM65%

    515 flights · avg delay 27 min

Best day: Tuesday (79%). Worst: Sunday (71%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • ORD → SRQ 77% chance on time

    Chicago O'Hare International Airport to Sarasota Bradenton International Airport · 1,001 flights a year · 40 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

  • MDW → TPA 75% chance on time

    Chicago Midway International Airport to Tampa International Airport · 1,631 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
73
F
83
M
70
A
79
M
73
J
69
J
66
A
72
S
83
O
82
N
85
D
72

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft49%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)24%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume23%
  • Severe weather5%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

ORD to TPA questions

What time of day is best to fly ORD to TPA?
Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 63% for departures noon to 3 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from ORD to TPA?
United, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,401 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on ORD to TPA?
July (66% on time); the best was November (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from ORD

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops