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Route on-time record

TPA to BNA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Nashville (Nashville International Airport). 2,493 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 429 at 6:20 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

TPA → BNA

Tampa to Nashville: 2,493 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

74%

Cancelled

0.9%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

93% on time vs 57% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

74% chance on time

Check TPA to BNA fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 429

    6:20 AM → 7:15 AM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 57%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find Southwest 429 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 4534

    9:05 AM → 10:05 AM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    93%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 93% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 54 flights

    Find Southwest 4534 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 4558

    9:20 AM → 10:25 AM2h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (32 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 4558 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 3140

    10:55 AM → 12:00 PM2h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (32 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 3140 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Envoy 3880 · sold as American Eagle

    12:04 PM → 1:08 PM2h 04m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Envoy 4037; its record covers all of them.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    2.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (72 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 72 flights

    Find 12:04 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 4535

    11:35 AM → 12:35 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 54 flights

    Find Southwest 4535 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Envoy 3825 · sold as American Eagle

    11:55 AM → 12:56 PM2h 01m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 62% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 10 flights

    Find 11:55 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Southwest 499

    2:10 PM → 3:15 PM2h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 30 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find Southwest 499 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Southwest 1521

    1:20 PM → 2:20 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    70%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    64%
    Cancelled
    6.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 64% of the time (14 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (14 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 14 flights

    Find Southwest 1521 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Envoy 3823 · sold as American Eagle

    5:03 PM → 6:05 PM2h 02m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Envoy 3436, 3797; its record covers all of them.

    62%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    62%
    Cancelled
    1.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    30 min
    • Arrived on time 62% of the time (325 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Strong track record · 325 flights

    Find 5:03 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines74%

    1,759 flights · 75% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

  • Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)71%

    713 flights · 72% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM93%

    364 flights · avg delay 3 min

  • 9 AM to noon85%

    427 flights · avg delay 8 min

  • Noon to 3 PM78%

    602 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • 3 to 6 PM67%

    546 flights · avg delay 24 min

  • 6 to 9 PM57%

    501 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Sunday (71%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • SRQ → BNA 81% chance on time

    Sarasota Bradenton International Airport to Nashville International Airport · 645 flights a year · 40 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
82
F
79
M
73
A
81
M
66
J
69
J
65
A
76
S
81
O
83
N
82
D
75

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft49%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume26%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)18%
  • Severe weather7%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

TPA to BNA questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to BNA?
Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 57% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to BNA?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,759 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to BNA?
July (65% on time); the best was October (83%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from TPA

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops