Route on-time record

TPA to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 1,630 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 76% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.0% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3701 at 7:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

TPA → MDW

Tampa to Chicago: 1,630 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

76%

Cancelled

2.0%

avg delay 16 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 56% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

74% chance on time

Check TPA to MDW fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $186 (Southwest 3029 on 2026-11-06). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 3701
7:00 AM → 8:50 AM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
91%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
2 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 56%).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find Southwest 3701 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 2084
10:10 AM → 11:55 AM2h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
89%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
5 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 2084 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Southwest 3374
10:25 AM → 12:15 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
83%
chance on time
On time (history)
88%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
11 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 3374 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 1102
6:20 AM → 8:10 AM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
82%
chance on time
On time (history)
83%
Cancelled
14.3%
Avg arrival delay
5 min
- Arrived on time 83% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 56%).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Southwest 1102 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Southwest 3074
8:10 AM → 10:00 AM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
82%
chance on time
On time (history)
94%
Cancelled
10.0%
Avg arrival delay
1 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (18 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 56%).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 18 flights
Find Southwest 3074 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 2604
10:40 AM → 12:30 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
81%
chance on time
On time (history)
81%
Cancelled
6.1%
Avg arrival delay
8 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.1% of the time (2 of 33).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 2604 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Southwest 1972
3:55 PM → 5:40 PM2h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-27. Same departure also flew as Southwest 4282; its record covers all of them.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
75%
Cancelled
2.9%
Avg arrival delay
13 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (32 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 1972 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Southwest 756
4:20 PM → 6:10 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
68%
chance on time
On time (history)
67%
Cancelled
3.2%
Avg arrival delay
17 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.2% of the time (1 of 31).
- Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 30 flights
Find Southwest 756 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Southwest 4575
4:55 PM → 6:50 PM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
67%
chance on time
On time (history)
67%
Cancelled
10.7%
Avg arrival delay
20 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Southwest 4575 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Southwest 4577
10:50 PM → 12:35 AM2h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
66%
chance on time
On time (history)
57%
Cancelled
6.7%
Avg arrival delay
43 min
- Arrived on time 57% of the time (14 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (14 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 14 flights
Find Southwest 4577 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Southwest Airlines74%
1,568 flights · 76% on time as flown · 2.0% cancel
Frontier Airlines73%
62 flights · 75% on time as flown · 2.4% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM89%
430 flights · avg delay 6 min
9 AM to noon84%
340 flights · avg delay 11 min
Noon to 3 PM82%
161 flights · avg delay 11 min
3 to 6 PM69%
306 flights · avg delay 20 min
6 to 9 PM56%
278 flights · avg delay 28 min
After 9 PM57%
115 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Tuesday (79%). Worst: Sunday (73%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Late-arriving aircraft53%
Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)23%
Air traffic control and airport volume19%
Severe weather4%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

TPA to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to MDW?: Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 56% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to MDW?: Southwest, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,568 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to MDW?: July (66% on time); the best was November (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from TPA

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