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Route on-time record

TPA to BUF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport). 783 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 375 at 8:30 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

TPA → BUF

Tampa to Buffalo: 783 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

1.1%

avg delay 13 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

95% on time vs 59% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

80% chance on time

Check TPA to BUF fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 375

    8:30 AM → 11:10 AM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    3.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.2% of the time (1 of 31).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 95% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find Southwest 375 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 669

    9:55 AM → 12:40 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    94%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 94% of the time (18 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (18 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 18 flights

    Find Southwest 669 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 920

    5:55 AM → 8:35 AM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    7 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 95% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 920 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 1279

    5:45 AM → 8:30 AM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    93%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 93% of the time (15 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 95% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (15 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 15 flights

    Find Southwest 1279 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 1989

    10:40 AM → 1:25 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 1989 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Frontier 1244

    3:57 PM → 6:46 PM2h 49m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-13.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    0.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (144 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • 53% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 144 flights

    Find Frontier 1244 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Southwest 4560

    8:35 PM → 11:15 PM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    71%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    66%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    24 min
    • Arrived on time 66% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 59% on time; Before 9 AM: 95%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 4560 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Southwest 1697

    8:00 PM → 10:45 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    65%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    57%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    24 min
    • Arrived on time 57% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 59% on time; Before 9 AM: 95%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 54 flights

    Find Southwest 1697 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines80%

    635 flights · 81% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines77%

    148 flights · 77% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM95%

    286 flights · avg delay 3 min

  • 9 AM to noon86%

    124 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • Noon to 3 PM73%

    99 flights · avg delay 21 min

  • 3 to 6 PM69%

    131 flights · avg delay 17 min

  • 6 to 9 PM59%

    123 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Wednesday (86%). Worst: Sunday (73%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
85
F
78
M
75
A
82
M
77
J
71
J
73
A
83
S
93
O
88
N
86
D
82

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft54%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)27%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume15%
  • Severe weather4%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

TPA to BUF questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to BUF?
Before 9 AM: 95% of flights arrived on time, against 59% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to BUF?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 635 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to BUF?
June (71% on time); the best was September (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from TPA

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops