Route on-time record

MDW to TPA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Tampa (Tampa International Airport). 1,631 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3397 at 5:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDW → TPA

Chicago to Tampa: 1,631 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

77%

Cancelled

1.5%

avg delay 14 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

91% on time vs 31% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Frontier

79% chance on time

Check MDW to TPA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $191 (Southwest 2891 on 2026-10-27). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 3397
5:00 AM → 8:30 AM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 1580; its record covers all of them.
92%
chance on time
On time (history)
97%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
3 min
- Arrived on time 97% of the time (61 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 61 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; After 9 PM: 31%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 61 flights
Find Southwest 3397 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 2319
7:55 AM → 11:30 AM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 4010; its record covers all of them.
85%
chance on time
On time (history)
90%
Cancelled
2.4%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (81 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; After 9 PM: 31%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 81 flights
Find Southwest 2319 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Southwest 1414
9:00 AM → 12:35 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05.
83%
chance on time
On time (history)
92%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
3 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find Southwest 1414 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 1368
4:45 PM → 8:20 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
81%
chance on time
On time (history)
96%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
6 min
- Arrived on time 96% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Southwest 1368 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Southwest 776
1:00 PM → 4:35 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
74%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
17 min
- Arrived on time 74% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 776 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 1888
12:20 PM → 3:50 PM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
63%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
21 min
- Arrived on time 63% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 1888 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Southwest 4011
1:25 PM → 5:00 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
69%
Cancelled
3.0%
Avg arrival delay
24 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 4011 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Southwest 2500
9:45 AM → 1:20 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
65%
Cancelled
6.1%
Avg arrival delay
26 min
- Arrived on time 65% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.1% of the time (2 of 33).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 2500 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Southwest 3026
7:10 PM → 10:45 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
71%
chance on time
On time (history)
50%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
34 min
- Arrived on time 50% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 50% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 3026 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Southwest 3068
6:30 PM → 10:05 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
64%
chance on time
On time (history)
57%
Cancelled
8.0%
Avg arrival delay
22 min
- Arrived on time 57% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 3068 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Frontier Airlines79%
63 flights · 85% on time as flown · 2.0% cancel
Southwest Airlines75%
1,568 flights · 76% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM91%
496 flights · avg delay 5 min
9 AM to noon83%
247 flights · avg delay 9 min
Noon to 3 PM79%
337 flights · avg delay 13 min
3 to 6 PM65%
198 flights · avg delay 21 min
6 to 9 PM63%
277 flights · avg delay 24 min
After 9 PM31%
76 flights · avg delay 46 min

Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Sunday (73%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Late-arriving aircraft45%
Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)34%
Air traffic control and airport volume19%
Severe weather1%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDW to TPA questions

What time of day is best to fly MDW to TPA?: Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 31% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MDW to TPA?: Frontier, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 63 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDW to TPA?: July (61% on time); the best was February (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MDW

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops

All Products

Aviation Intelligence

Alerts & Airspace

Free Pilot Tools & Widgets

RC Aviation

Games & Learning

Weather Research & More

Pilot Resources

My Airports

Ask ATIS