Route on-time record
SDF to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 2,800 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 79% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4692 at 6:00 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
SDF → ORD
Louisville to Chicago: 2,800 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
79%
Cancelled
2.5%
avg delay 17 min
Best time to leave
9 AM to noon
87% on time vs 60% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
80% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $112 (American 4413 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Republic 4692 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:00 AM → 6:40 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 93%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Republic 3546 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
5:40 AM → 6:20 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 21 flights
Find 5:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Republic 3422 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
7:20 AM → 8:00 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 88%
- Cancelled
- 0.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (345 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
Strong track record · 345 flights
Find 7:20 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Republic 4704 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
10:47 AM → 11:30 AM1h 43m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
86%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 10:47 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · SkyWest 6019 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
5:00 AM → 5:40 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 96%
- Cancelled
- 7.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 96% of the time (26 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (26 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 26 flights
Find 5:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Republic 4622 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:33 AM → 7:15 AM1h 42m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 86%
- Cancelled
- 2.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 86% of the time (280 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
Strong track record · 280 flights
Find 6:33 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Republic 3694 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:00 AM → 9:38 AM1h 38m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 4757; its record covers all of them.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 1.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
- Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find 9:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Republic 3552 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:10 AM → 9:50 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Republic 3653; its record covers all of them.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 84%
- Cancelled
- 1.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (348 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
Strong track record · 348 flights
Find 9:10 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Republic 4646 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
11:16 AM → 11:56 AM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 81%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (42 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 87% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
- Short track record (42 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 42 flights
Find 11:16 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Republic 4698 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
7:30 AM → 8:12 AM1h 42m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 6.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 20 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (28 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.7% of the time (2 of 30).
- Short track record (28 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 28 flights
Find 7:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)80%
1,712 flights · 83% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)75%
495 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)68%
583 flights · 70% on time as flown · 3.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM85%
1,067 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 9 AM to noon87%
613 flights · avg delay 12 min
- Noon to 3 PM74%
559 flights · avg delay 26 min
- 3 to 6 PM60%
144 flights · avg delay 27 min
- 6 to 9 PM63%
416 flights · avg delay 26 min
Best day: Monday (83%). Worst: Friday (77%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
SDF → MDW 84% chance on time
Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 1,001 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 77%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft38%
- Air traffic control and airport volume37%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)18%
- Severe weather7%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
SDF to ORD questions
- What time of day is best to fly SDF to ORD?
- 9 AM to noon: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 60% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from SDF to ORD?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,712 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on SDF to ORD?
- January (73% on time); the best was October (86%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from SDF
- ORD to SDF (return)
- SDF to ATL 89%
- SDF to DFW 74%
- SDF to CLT 82%
- SDF to DTW 82%
- SDF to DEN 83%
- SDF to LGA 83%
- SDF to DCA 79%
- SDF to MDW 85%
- SDF to EWR 86%
- SDF to BWI 86%
- SDF to MCO 81%
- SDF to BOS 70%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops