Route on-time record
SDF to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 1,029 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 79% arrived within 15 minutes and 5.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4549 at 6:00 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
SDF → DCA
Louisville to Washington: 1,029 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
79%
Cancelled
5.2%
avg delay 21 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
93% on time vs 58% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
85% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Republic 4549 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:00 AM → 7:44 AM1h 44m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 1.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (359 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 58%).
Strong track record · 359 flights
Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · PSA 5400 · sold as American Eagle
10:11 AM → 11:59 AM1h 48m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5440; its record covers all of them.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (51 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 51 scheduled flights.
- Short track record (51 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 51 flights
Find 10:11 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Republic 4768 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
11:02 AM → 12:44 PM1h 42m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 67%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 10 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find 11:02 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · PSA 5674 · sold as American Eagle
4:25 PM → 6:16 PM1h 51m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
63%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 72%
- Cancelled
- 5.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 32 min
- Arrived on time 72% of the time (82 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 5.7% of the time (5 of 87).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Moderate track record · 82 flights
Find 4:25 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · PSA 5189 · sold as American Eagle
4:50 PM → 6:34 PM1h 44m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
56%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 59%
- Cancelled
- 6.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 58 min
- Arrived on time 59% of the time (56 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.6% of the time (4 of 61).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- Short track record (56 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 56 flights
Find 4:50 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)85%
421 flights · 88% on time as flown · 2.6% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)67%
590 flights · 72% on time as flown · 7.1% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM93%
357 flights · avg delay 5 min
- 9 AM to noon80%
344 flights · avg delay 17 min
- 3 to 6 PM65%
185 flights · avg delay 40 min
- 6 to 9 PM58%
131 flights · avg delay 53 min
Best day: Saturday (86%). Worst: Sunday (78%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
SDF → BWI 84% chance on time
Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 890 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 75%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft38%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)31%
- Air traffic control and airport volume23%
- Severe weather8%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
SDF to DCA questions
- What time of day is best to fly SDF to DCA?
- Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 58% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from SDF to DCA?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 85% chance of operating and arriving on time over 421 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on SDF to DCA?
- July (72% on time); the best was October (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from SDF
- DCA to SDF (return)
- SDF to ORD 79%
- SDF to ATL 89%
- SDF to DFW 74%
- SDF to CLT 82%
- SDF to DTW 82%
- SDF to DEN 83%
- SDF to LGA 83%
- SDF to MDW 85%
- SDF to EWR 86%
- SDF to BWI 86%
- SDF to MCO 81%
- SDF to BOS 70%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops