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Route on-time record

SDF to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 1,001 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 85% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.6% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2816 at 8:55 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

SDF → MDW

Louisville to Chicago: 1,001 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

85%

Cancelled

1.6%

avg delay 10 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

92% on time vs 78% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

84% chance on time

Check SDF to MDW fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $303 (Southwest 2130 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 2816

    8:55 AM → 9:15 AM1h 20m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 78%).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 2816 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 1407

    8:40 AM → 9:00 AM1h 20m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3146; its record covers all of them.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (70 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 71 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 78%).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Moderate track record · 70 flights

    Find Southwest 1407 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 2035

    11:50 AM → 12:05 PM1h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 33 flights

    Find Southwest 2035 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 1683

    2:40 PM → 2:55 PM1h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (38 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
    • 81% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (38 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 38 flights

    Find Southwest 1683 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 300

    8:10 PM → 8:25 PM1h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3305; its record covers all of them.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    1.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    18 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (59 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 78% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
    • 51% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (59 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 59 flights

    Find Southwest 300 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines84%

    1,001 flights · 85% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM92%

    359 flights · avg delay 6 min

  • 9 AM to noon84%

    58 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • Noon to 3 PM88%

    166 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 3 to 6 PM80%

    91 flights · avg delay 17 min

  • 6 to 9 PM78%

    304 flights · avg delay 16 min

Best day: Saturday (92%). Worst: Sunday (83%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
84
F
91
M
83
A
84
M
83
J
88
J
77
A
88
S
91
O
88
N
91
D
86

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft57%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume22%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)21%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

SDF to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly SDF to MDW?
Before 9 AM: 92% of flights arrived on time, against 78% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from SDF to MDW?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 84% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,001 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on SDF to MDW?
July (77% on time); the best was February (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from SDF

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops