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Route on-time record

TPA to SAN: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to San Diego (San Diego International Airport). 589 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 75% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Alaska 433 at 9:29 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

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TPA → SAN

Tampa to San Diego: 589 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

75%

Cancelled

0.8%

avg delay 13 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

90% on time vs 58% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Alaska

81% chance on time

Check TPA to SAN fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Alaska 433

    9:29 AM → 11:59 AM5h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-12.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    1.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (339 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside SAN's trouble window: 66% of its 166 ground stops and delay programs started between 6 AM and noon.

    Strong track record · 339 flights

    Find Alaska 433 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Alaska 435

    5:54 PM → 8:10 PM5h 16m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    23 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (19 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 19 flights

    Find Alaska 435 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 4124

    6:00 PM → 8:10 PM5h 10m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    54%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    45%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    22 min
    • Arrived on time 45% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 58% on time; Before 9 AM: 90%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 4124 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Alaska Airlines81%

    364 flights · 83% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

  • Southwest Airlines66%

    225 flights · 63% on time as flown · 0.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM90%

    184 flights · avg delay 6 min

  • 9 AM to noon75%

    162 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • 3 to 6 PM66%

    186 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • 6 to 9 PM58%

    52 flights · avg delay 24 min

Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Saturday (65%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
75
M
72
A
72
M
66
J
64
J
61
A
82
S
87
O
76
N
77
D
83

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)39%
  • Late-arriving aircraft33%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume22%
  • Severe weather6%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from TPA to SAN…

TPA to SAN questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to SAN?
Before 9 AM: 90% of flights arrived on time, against 58% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to SAN?
Alaska, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 364 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to SAN?
July (61% on time); the best was September (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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Live status: FAA delays and ground stops